OVERVIEW:
USDA released the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the first since September due to the government shutdown.
MILK:
Class IV futures did not trade for the majority of the week; however, Friday brought some small gains for the contract. Class III futures remained unchanged for the week. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report highlighted much of what we already know from the Milk Production report earlier this week. Milk production is up since September, climbing 3 billion pounds. Domestic use from a Fat Basis is 2.1 billion pounds higher, and domestic use for Skim-solid basis was 2.9 billion pounds higher. With the changes in supply and the increase in use, ending stocks were unchanged on a fat basis and 100 million pounds lower on a skim-solid basis. For Class III Milk, USDA has projected 2025 prices at 17.40, down 75 cents from the September projections, but an increase in 2026 from 17.40 to 17.65. Class IV is projected 80 cents lower in 2025 than the September report and a disappointing $2.75 lower for the 2026 projections than what was published in September.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:
| 3 Month: | $16.65 |
| 6 Month: | $16.56 |
| 9 Month: | $16.74 |
| 12 Month: | $16.94 |
CHEESE:
For the week, block cheese fell 12 cents with 17 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.588. Barrel cheese fell 5.75 cents with no loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.661. Demand is lighter, and buyers do not need to come to the spot market to buy. The dry whey price for the week remained increased 7 cents at 78.00 with two loads traded. The weekly average price is 75.20 cents. The WASDE report lowered cheese prices for this year by 1 cent from the last report and by 3.5 cents for the 2026 projections, coming in at 1.74 per pound.
BUTTER:
For the week, butter increased 10 cents, taking back almost all that was lost last week, with 32 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.5275. Butter truly carried the rest of the dairy complex this week, with cheese falling apart; butter helped support some of what was lost. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 3.75 cents with 17 loads traded. The weekly average price was $1.1625. The WASDE Report projected 2025 butter prices at $2.22, down 14 cents from September and 2026 prices at $1.70, down a whopping 54.5 cents from the September report.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:
December corn closed down 11.25 cents per bushel at $4.3025, January soybeans closed down 22.50 cents at $11.2450 and December soybean meal closed down $5.90 per ton at $322.50. December Chicago wheat closed down 8.50 cents at $5.2725. December live cattle closed up $0.15 at $219.15. December crude oil is up 1.27 per barrel at $59.96. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 309 points at 47,147 and the NASDAQ is up 30 points at 22,900.
