Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Spot Prices May Show Further Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	10 to 15 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:	4 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

MILK:

Not much is expected in the market Friday. The negativity of the week will be difficult to overcome unless there is unexpected strength in the spot markets. With the aggressive selling that has taken place this week, it is doubtful buyers will turn aggressive. The April Milk Production report will be released this afternoon, and it is not expected to be very supportive to the market. I estimate milk production to be 2.0% above a year ago due to higher cow numbers and production per cow. I estimate cow numbers to be 5,000 head more than in March.

CHEESE:

The weakness of cheese on Thursday may result in buyers continuing to hold back today. Sellers are aggressive and intend to move supplies as quickly as possible and at lower prices. Cheese production is strong, but demand may be slowing due to higher fuel and food prices.

BUTTER:

Sellers remain aggressive, offering a substantial volume of loads to the spot maket. It is not that demand has declined, but that supply is plentiful and manufacturers do not want to have inventory build at the plant level. Buyers are willing to purchase, but are not willing to buy aggressively.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cattle Slaughter Increase in April

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

The weakness does not stop. Spot prices are making another leg down as selling intensifies. Nonfat dry milk showed exceptional weakness as buyers step back. Dairy cattle slaughter increased from the previous year.

MILK:

Milk futures took another beating, with Class IV contracts hit harder than Class III. The weakness in Grade A nonfat dry milk took quite a bit of premium out of the market. The bearishness of the market has increased and may be difficult to overcome anytime soon. Dairy farms are pushing as much milk as possible to compensate for lower milk prices. Dairy cattle slaughter in April totaled 215,100 head, down 24,100 head from March. Slaughter increased by 7,900 head from April 2025. This stands to reason due to the higher cow numbers. Higher cow numbers would increase the volume of cows that might move to slaughter, but it would not reduce the herd. USDA will release the April Milk Production report on Friday.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.83
6 Month:	$17.46
9 Month:	$17.65
12 Month:	$17.67

CHEESE:

The block cheese price lost most of what it gained on Wednesday. The barrel cheese price declined to the lowest level it has been since February 19th. Buyers continue to hold back in the spot market, waiting for sellers to lower prices. Buyers remained willing to purchase supplies, but only at a lower level. As long as sellers remain aggressive, buyers will remain complacent.

BUTTER:

Butter is unable to find a bottom and is heading back to the lows from the beginning of the year. The large decline in Grade A nonfat dry milk moved the price to the lowest level since April 9th and the largest one-day decline since September 19, 2008. The daily price calculation for class prices showed the Class IV price declining by $1.01 per cwt today, just in the decline of nonfat dry milk alone.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 3.50 cents per bushel at $4.6225, July soybeans closed down 5.50 cents at $11.9425 and July soybean meal closed down $2.50 per ton at $328.40. July Chicago wheat closed down 13.00 cents at $6.4750. August live cattle closed down $5.95 at $239.35. July crude oil is down $1.91 per barrel at $96.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 276 points at 50,286, with the NASDAQ up 23 points at 26,293.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 21

California milk production varies from steady to lighter for week 21. Stakeholders indicate warmer temperatures are reducing cow comfort in some areas. May 2026 milk production is up slightly compared to last month. Milk output continues to be up significantly year-over-year. Manufacturers note milk intakes are above expectations but are manageable. Although spot loads remain available, Central Valley processors describe milk volumes as balanced. 

In Arizona and New Mexico, farm level milk output varies from steady to lighter. Some manufacturers are securing spot milk loads. 

Milk production in the Pacific Northwest is steady. Some stakeholders indicate milk volumes are somewhat tight. 

In the mountain states of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado, farm level milk output is steady. Idaho processors report plenty of milk is available to meet needs and components remain strong. Colorado processors report milk volumes remain balanced relative to processing capacities. Class I, II, III, and IV demands vary from steady to lighter throughout the region with the upcoming holiday weekend and summer breaks beginning at educational institutions. 

Cream availability is accommodating buyer needs in the West. Cream demand and multiples are steady. No changes in condensed skim milk availability and demand are reported this week.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Nonfat Dry Milk Falls

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	7 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.90 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$3.75Lower
DOW JONES:	265 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	78 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$1.07 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 3.00 cents, closing at $1.54 with 10 loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 3.50 cents, closing at $1.48 with two loads traded. It has been unusual to have any loads traded for barrels. The dry whey price increased 0.50 cent to close at 68.75 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 1-33 cents lower. The butter price declined 2.50 cents to close at $1.5250 with 31 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk fell 11.75 cents to close at $2.0925 with seven loads traded. This is the largest one-day price decline since September 19, 2008. This solidifies that the top is in, and it may indicate that the market could fall faster than it went up. Class IV futures have only traded in the June contract, posting a loss of $0.39. Butter futures are 0.02 – 4.30 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 1.00 - 1.50 cents lower. Cheese futures are 2.10 cents lower to 0.10 cent higher. The April Livestock Slaughter report will be released today, providing the number of dairy cattle slaughtered for the month.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Weakness May Prevail

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	10 to 15 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	4 to 5 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures have little support with the weakness in the underlying cash. The bounce in the cheese price did not garner much buying interest from traders are it is expected to be short-lived. Milk output is not slowing down and it will not as long as the weather remains good for cow comfort. The April Milk Production report will be released on Friday, indicating the strength of production and the number of cows in the dairy herd. USDA will release the April Livestock Slaughter report Thursday afternoon. The report provides the level of dairy cattle slaughter for the month.

CHEESE:

The bounce in the block cheese price on Wednesday is expected to be short-lived, as there is little reason for buyers to step up and purchase cheese aggressively. Cheese production is increasing as more milk is moving to manufacturing.

BUTTER:

The butter market is dealing with plentiful supplies as churns operate seven days a week. It is not a matter of inventory building substantially, as it remains below a year ago, but manufacturers want to move supplies to the market as quickly as possible and are willing to offer them at lower prices. As long as selling remains aggressive, buyers will hold for lower prices. 

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Advanced Class I Price is $22.80

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class IV futures took a beating from the decrease in butter and nonfat dry milk prices. Class III futures also showed mostly lower prices despite the increase in block cheese. The June Class I price is $22.88.

MILK:

The recent slight bullishness that developed in the milk market has quickly turned bearish. Greater concern is developing over the price potential of the market. The weakness in the butter and nonfat dry milk market is especially concerning, with churns running seven days a week due to plentiful cream supplies. There is sufficient supply for the market that buyers do not have to step up to the plate to purchase. Loads continue to be traded in the spot market, and that is keeping the market from going higher. Nonfat dry milk has reached its peak. Based on what the price pattern has been in the last week, especially today's large decline in the nonfat dry milk spot market, we can safely say this is going to put more pressure on Class IV futures. Class IV futures have been enjoying a significant premium relative to Class III because it was being supported by nonfat dry milk. Now that nonfat dry milk is seeing weakness and is trending lower, a lot of that support is going to be taken out of that market. Historically, the market that moves up significantly over a period of time, once it tops out, has a long tail. We could actually see the Grade A nonfat dry milk market decline for a long period of time as we move forward. The June advanced Class 1 price was released at $22.18. This was $2.03 above May and is $4.92 higher than June 2025.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.93
6 Month:	$17.59
9 Month:	$17.78
12 Month:	$17.75

CHEESE:

Cheese production is running higher than a year ago, keeping a sufficient supply available to the market despite increased demand. Spot milk prices in the Central region range from $6.00 under class to $1.00 over class. The bounce of the block cheese spot price today may be short-lived.

BUTTER:

The spot butter price fell to the lowest level since January 29th. Buyers continue to see plentiful supplies, making it easy to purchase supplies at lower prices. There is no indication as to the level of support for butter.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 9.50 cents per bushel at $4.6575, July soybeans closed down 9.75 cents at $11.9975, and July soybean meal closed down $1.40 per ton at $330.90. July Chicago wheat closed down 6.75 cents at $6.6050. August live cattle closed down $1.95 at $245.30. July crude oil is down $5.89 per barrel at $98.26. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 543 points at 49,907, with the NASDAQ up 400 points at 26,270.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cash Uncertainty to Dominate Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 t o 8 Lower
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

The pressure on milk futures Tuesday will keep traders cautious ahead of spot trading Wednesday. Futures prices continue to roll down in Class III contracts as the underlying cash prices provide little reason for traders to be bullish. Strong milk output and the expectations for it to continue leave limited expectations for higher prices. It will be up to the impact of the weather this summer on milk output, potentially tightening the milk supply. However, with increasing cow numbers lower production per cow may still keep milk production higher than a year ago. However, advancements have been made to limit the impact of hot weather on cow comfort.

CHEESE:

The block price falling below the trading range may keep buyers unaggressive with the anticipation of cheese continuing to be offered on the market. They see no need to be aggressive, as a sufficient supply will be available as long as milk production remains strong. Currently, it seems that it would take a black swan event to change the market.

BUTTER:

The decline in butter on Tuesday renewed the possibility of the price revisiting the previous low. The weakness over the past week in nonfat dry milk is concerning, as the price may have reached resistance, and demand has been impacted. If this weakness continues, Class IV futures will trend lower.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Decline as Further Premium Is Eliminated

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures closed under pressure today following the weakness of spot prices. This further indicates that price potential will be limited for the foreseeable future. Milk production is expected to remain strong throughout the rest of the year.

MILK:

There is nothing fundamentally new in the market. Strong milk production and increasing cow numbers continue to dominate the market. Any increase in demand is being met with sufficient milk supplies. Low prices should cure low prices, but this is not evident in the market. A substantial amount of income for the farm operation continues to come from high calf prices. The threshold for culling cows has been lowered, resulting in more cows remaining in the dairy herd. The April Milk Production report will be released on Friday, and it is expected to follow a similar pattern as it has been. Higher milk output and cow numbers from the previous year. It is uncertain what will change that pattern anytime soon. There is an element in the market that may also limit demand as the year progresses, and that is high prices for food and fuel. This has curtailed restaurant traffic to some extent and could remain that way or curtail further if high prices persist.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$16.96
6 Month:	$17.68
9 Month:	$17.88
12 Month:	$17.85

CHEESE:

The decline in cheese prices increased the bearishness in the market. The block cheese price moved below the sideways trading range, with the price at the lowest level since March 13th. The barrel price moved to the lowest level since March 12th. More milk will be moving to the cheese vat as schools close for the summer. This will increase cheese production, providing a sufficient supply to the market, keeping cheese buyers complacent about supply.

BUTTER:

The butter price remains in a downtrend but has remained above the previous low. The action today potentially increases the chance of the price revisiting the low. Manufacturers keep offering butter to the spot market aggressively and are willing to sell at lower prices to move it.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 1.75 cents per bushel at $4.7525, July soybeans closed down 3.50 cents at $12.0950, and July soybean meal closed down $2.20 per ton at $332.30. July Chicago wheat closed up 2.75 cents at $6.6725. August live cattle closed up $0.10 at $247.25. July crude oil is down $0.23 per barrel at $104.15. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 322 points at 49,364, with the NASDAQ down 220 points at 25,871.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Spot Prices Show Weakness

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	4 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.10 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.35 Higher
DOW JONES:	98 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	59 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$0.87 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 2.25 cents to close at $1.5325 with 15 loads traded. The barrel cheese price declined 4.00 cents, closing at $1.5150 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 69.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 1-28 cents lower. The butter price declined 4.00 cents to close at $1.60 with 12 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk price declined 1.50 cents to close at $2.2550 with one load traded. Class IV futures are 6-63 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.25 - 2.95 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.50 cent lower to 0.20 cent higher. Cheese prices are 0.40 - 2.10 cents lower. This does not bode well for the long-term outlook for milk prices.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Show Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 t o 8 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	5 to 7 Higher

MILK:

Overnight trade indicates lower trade Tuesday, ahead of spot trading. Each time it seems support may be developing under the market, it fails to follow through. It has happened numerous times, leaving the market with limited strength even if underlying cash prices are supported. Howver, higher cash prices continue to be short-lived. Manufacturers want to move supplies as quickly as possible rather than build inventory. This may result in a bullish market later in the year if demand increases seasonally. However, continued strong milk production may keep sufficient milk available for bottling and manufacturing, limiting or eliminating any market tightness.

CHEESE:

Steady cheese prices on Monday were viewed as bearish to the market. The inability of cash prices to increase gives the impression supplies are sufficient due to steady cheese production. More milk will be finding its way to the vat as schools close for the summer. This will offset any increase in demand.

BUTTER:

Butter may be experiencing some price support, but that does not mean it will trend higher. It means it may not fall back to the lows. Demand has been improving. There has been a substantial volume of loads traded on he spot market for quite a few weeks, but it is moving to demand and not building inventory to any great extent. This should be positive in the long term.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Fluid Milk Sales Increased 2.3%

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Both Class III and Class IV futures were generally lower. No price movement or limited price movement in the underlying cash was viewed as negative by traders.

MILK:

When the market is bullish, steady cash prices are viewed as friendly. When the market is bearish, steady prices are viewed as negative. That is the attitude of today. This does not necessarily mean the market will trend lower from here, but it limits the upside potential. Milk output is higher than a year ago, with sufficient supply available for bottling and manufacturing needs. March fluid milk sales were 2.3 percent higher than in March 2025. Whole milk sales increased 4.8 percent; flavored whole milk increased 13.4 percent; reduced-fat milk decreased 0.7 percent; low-fat milk declined 4.6 percent; fat-free skim milk declined 3.4 percent; flavored fat-reduced milk declined 0.5 percent; buttermilk increased 2.9 percent; with other fluid milk product sales up 13.7 percent. Organic whole milk sales increased 10.3 percent; organic flavored whole milk jumped 31.5 percent; organic reduced-fat milk increased 1.1 percent; organic low-fat milk decreased 8.4 percent; organic fat-free milk sales decreased 2.3 percent; organic flavored fat-reduced milk increased 14.6 percent, with organic sales of other fluid milk products declining 100.0 percent.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.11
6 Month:	$17.79
9 Month:	$17.96
12 Month:	$17.91

CHEESE:

The negative aspect of the cheese market was that blocks closed spot trading with 10 uncovered offers remaining at the close. This could suggest the price will have limited upside potential. Manufacturers are interested in moving supplies to the market quickly to minimize building inventory.

BUTTER:

The spot butter price closed steady after initially declining during spot trading. Trading was brisk, with 26 loads changing hands. However, there were 15 unfilled bids remaining at the close of spot trading. This suggests the market may have a floor where buyers are interested in buying, but not necessarily that the price will trend higher. It will depend on how aggressive those buyers will want to be.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 21.25 cents per bushel at $4.7700, July soybeans closed up 36.00 cents at $12.1300, and July soybean meal closed up $.20 per ton at $334.50. July Chicago wheat closed up 28.75 cents at $6.6450. June live cattle closed down $0.53 at $253.38. June crude oil is up $3.24 per barrel at $108.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 160 points at 49,686, with the NASDAQ down 134 points at 26,091.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Spot Prices Hold Steady

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	20 Higher
SOYBEANS:	39 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.40 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.02 Lower
DOW JONES:	77 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	187 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.37 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

Both block and barrel cheese remained unchanged at $1.5550 for both categories. There were no loads traded. The dry whey price increased 0.50 cent to close at 69.00 cents with no loads traded. Even though no price change was seen for cheese, and dry whey increased slightly, Class III futures are mostly lower. Contracts range from 17 cents lower to 5 cents higher. The butter price remained steady at $1.64 with 26 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped 0.25 cent to close at $2.27 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 6-7 cents lower, with trading activity only taking place in the October and November contracts. Butter futures are 3.22 cents lower to 0.22 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.07 cent lower to 0.37 cent higher. Cheese futures are 1.80 cents lower to 0.30 cent higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Price Movement Ahead of Spot Trading

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	13 to 15 Higher
Soybean Futures:	25 to 26 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$4 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures:	19 to 21 Higher

MILK:

There has been little fundamental change in the market, leaving milk futures choppy. This is not expected to change anytime soon. Milk production continues to exceed that of a year ago. Any increase in demand is being readily met without tightening supply. Class IV futures have been holding due to the strength of nonfat dry milk. However, the slight weakness last week could indicate the price may have met resistance and demand may be slowing. The price is not expected to fall apart but may hold at a lower level. There is much uncertainty in the market and it will keep traders preferring short-term trading rather than establishing long-term positions.

CHEESE:

The question is whether the block cheese price will hold support at the bottom of the trading range or if further weakness develops. Cheese demand is good, but production is higher due to increased milk receipts at plants. More milk will be diverted to manufacturing as schools close for the summer.

BUTTER:

The butter price is trying to increase as demand is strong. However, churning is active with plants operating seven days a week. Churning is expected to decrease seasonally as summer weather impacts milk production and butterfat content.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Hay Stocks Decline 3.3% From a Year Ago

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Both Class III and Class IV futures closed lower for the week. Class III showed greater losses. Grain prices were under pressure from the disappointment that China did not commit to increasing grain purchases. Hay stocks on May 1 were 3.3 percent below a year ago.

MILK:

Both Class III and Class IV milk futures closed lower than at the end of last week. Class III futures were under greater pressure as spot cheese prices declined. Nearby Class III futures continue to roll down as premiums are eliminated from contracts as time moves on. As long as spot prices show limited upside potential, this will continue to take place. Hay stocks on May 1 totaled 23.3 million tons, down 3.3 percent from a year earlier. The state with the largest decline in stocks was Utah, down 41 percent. Wisconsin and New York were 35 percent lower. Texas declined 33 percent, with Colorado down 32 percent. Stocks of hay in West Virginia were 153 percent higher than a year ago. Ohio was 119 percent higher, Kansas was 70 percent higher, and Nevada was 44 percent higher. Grain prices fell over the past two days due to the disappointment that China did not commit to purchasing more grain this year during the Trump visit.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.20
6 Month:	$17.88
9 Month:	$18.02
12 Month:	$17.95

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks declined 6.75 cents with 24 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.6035 per pound. Barrels declined 4.50 cents with no loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.5850 per pound. Dry whey declined 1.50 cents with 4 loads traded. The weekly average price is 68.70 cents per pound. The block price fell to the lowest price since April 9 and is at the bottom end of the wide trading range.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter declined 2.50 cents with 99 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.6385 per pound. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 1.75 cents with 28 loads traded. The weekly average price is $2.2810 per pound. The weakness of dry whey is a concern, as it gives the impression that the price has reached a plateau. This may pressure Class IV futures if it continues next week.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 11.75 cents per bushel at $4.5575, July soybeans closed down 15.50 cents at $11.7700, and July soybean meal closed up $1.80 per ton at $334.30. July Chicago wheat closed down 22.25 cents at $6.3575. June live cattle closed up $1.83 at $253.90. June crude oil is up $4.32 per barrel at $105.49. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 537 points at 49,526, with the NASDAQ down 410 points at 26,225.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Further Weakness Develops

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	11 Lower
SOYBEANS:	17 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$1.50 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.55 Higher
DOW JONES:	435 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	231 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$3.97 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 1.50 cents to close at $1.5550 with five loads traded. The barrel cheese price mirrored the block also with a decline of $1.50, closing at $1.5550 with no loads traded. The dry why price gained a penny to close at 68.50 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are 12 cents lower to 2 cents higher with only September posting a gain. The butter price slipped 0.50 cent to close at $1.6400 with 23 loads traded. There were 17 unfilled bids and 8 uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. Buyer interest is good, but they remain unaggressive as sellers continue to offer supplies. Grade A nonfat dry milk slipped 0.25 cent to close at $2.2725 with one load traded. Class IV futures are 2-9 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.47 cent lower to 2.90 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.42 cent lower to 0.25 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.60 cent lower to 0.60 cent higher.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Find Little Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures:	5 to 6 Lower

MILK:

The decline in cheese prices on Thursday was a surprise and will increase the caution of traders. It seemed the maket had been finding support with spot prices trading in a tight range. However, Thursday's decline indicates support remains elusive. Continued strong milk output and steady cheese production will keep the market supplied. Schools are closing and will close over the next few weeks, with more milk moving to manufacturing. Milk production provides no indication of slowing anytime soon. Trading activity may be light ahead of spot trading as traders are uncertain whether buyers will step up in the spot market to take advantage of the weakness in cheese or if further weakness may take place if buyers hold back.

CHEESE:

Cheese supplies are sufficient for demand, with increasing milk availability keeping manufacturing strong. Plants may move cheese to the spot market as quickly as possible to keep inventory from building.

BUTTER:

Traders will be cautious over whether the butter price has much further upside potential in the near term. The market has yet to break out of an overall downtrend despite the rebound from the lows two weeks ago. Strong butter production keeps the supply readily available to the market and spot trading activity significant.

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Closed Mixed

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Steady milk production keeps a sufficient supply for manufacturing, leaving little reason for spot prices to increase. Cheese buyers had no interest in supporting spot prices today. Butter was better but did not generate substantial support in futures.

MILK:

Milk output in the Western region remains stable. There have not been large swings in milk production, leaving a sufficient supply on the spot market. This sufficient supply will keep the upside price potential limited. It was hoped that demand would improve and prices would find support. That may yet take place, but certainly not in the near term. The drop in cheese prices today indicates the markets may remain entrenched in a sideways pattern. The May contracts are mostly priced and will move sideways with limited movement after this week. June Class III futures have been decreasing to eliminate the premium they had contained in anticipation of higher prices. June Class IV futures have been holding as the underlying cash is supporting the market.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.27
6 Month:	$17.93
9 Month:	$18.06
12 Month:	$17.98

CHEESE:

The substantial decline in the block cheese price was unexpected, as the market had been trading in a tight sideways range. The price has moved down near the bottom of the wider trading range that has been in place since mid-March. Class III futures held well despite the decline as traders continue to do day or short-term trading, reducing the need for substantial liquidation. Demand for spot milk from cheese manufacturers varies depending on location and cheese varieties.

BUTTER:

Buyers were aggressive in the spot butter market, but there is little reason for buyers to remain aggressive for an extended period. At least, the price has not moved down to retest the lows. All the uncovered offers from Wednesday were purchased, and more, with only one offer remaining at the close today. However, this does not mean the market will move higher on Friday. It will depend on who needs to take care of business and how aggressive they will be.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 13.25 cents per bushel at $4.6750, July soybeans closed down 36.50 cents at $11.9250, and July soybean meal closed down $6.00 per ton at $332.50. July Chicago wheat closed down 17.50 cents at $6.5800. June live cattle closed down $0.73 at $252.08. June crude oil is up $0.99 per barrel at $102.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 370 points at 50,063, with the NASDAQ up 233 points at 26,635.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 20

California milk production is stable. Handlers indicate large week-to-week changes have not taken place yet this spring. Balancing plants are handling manageable volumes. Stakeholders indicate milk loads are available for spot buyers. 

Arizona and New Mexico farm level milk output varies from steady to somewhat lighter. Some stakeholders are looking to secure spot loads of milk as volumes are tighter than anticipated. 

Pacific Northwest milk production is mixed. Washington processors note milk volumes are tight in the state. The latest milk production report from National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) shows the milk cow total for Washington as 236,000 in March 2026 compared to 251,000 in March 2025. This report also shows Washington had the most severe drop by percentage in milk production. 

Milk production is steady in the Mountain States of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado. Milk output is meeting or exceeding expectations. Handlers report milk components continue to be strong. Although some Idaho stakeholders note caps are keeping milk volumes balanced with processing capacities, spot milk loads are available. 

Stakeholders report more than enough cream is available in the West and demand for it has picked up. Prices are lower than week 19, which decreased cream multiples for this week. Condensed skim milk availability and demand are steady.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cheese Prices Fall

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	13 Lower
SOYBEANS:	40 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$7.20 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.60 Lower
DOW JONES:	360 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	232 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.66 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price fell 7.00 cents to close at $1.5700 with 7 loads traded. This moved the price down to the low of the larger trading range that has developed since March. The recent tight trading range was violated, potentially opening the way for further weakness. The barrel cheese price declined 3.00 cents, closing at $1.5700, which is the lowest it has been since March 30. No loads were traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 67.50 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are holding well, with contracts 14 cents lower to 17 cents higher. The butter price increased 2.75 cents, closing at $1.6450 with 36 loads traded. The large number of offers that remained at the close on Wednesday were absorbed. There were 15 unfilled bids with 1 uncovered offer remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 1.25 cents to close at $2.2750 with 8 loads traded. Class IV futures are 2 cents lower to 23 cents higher with traders focusing on the strength of butter. Butter futures are steady to 2.72 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 1.30 cents higher. Cheese futures are steady to 1.60 cents lower.

Dairy herd growth moderates

U.S. dairy herds continue to expand, though growth has moderated from last year. Through the first quarter of 2026, the national dairy herd increased by 55,000 head (0.6%), supporting stronger milk production. U.S. milk output rose 4.4% in the first quarter, with March production up 2.3% from a year earlier, driven by both additional cows and improved productivity per cow.

Across the Western U.S., all states posted increases in milk cow numbers during the first quarter except California. California’s herd declined by 5,000 head (-0.2%) during the period, reflecting a combination of low milk prices and processing capacity constraints. The closure of a cheese processing facility, which has since relocated to Texas, reduced in‑state capacity, while over‑base milk penalties imposed by at least one processor have sharply discounted milk shipped above monthly base volumes. For some producers, limited milk dumping has occurred to avoid these over-base charges which can be quite substantial.

In contrast, Idaho continues to post strong herd growth, supported by expanding processing capacity. The first confirmed case of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in 2026 was identified in a dairy herd in Idaho. After causing meaningful production losses and revenue impacts in 2024, HPAI activity has remained largely muted since mid‑2025, making this the first confirmed case since December 2025. USDA officials have indicated that this case likely reflects localized circulation rather than a broader outbreak. There is cautious optimism that it remains contained.

In Washington, the milk cow herd increased by 1,000 head during the first quarter of 2026, following a significant contraction in 2025 when herd size declined by 19,000 head (-7.5%). Last year’s culling was tied to tightening margins and processor disruptions that weighed heavily on milk checks. The recent return to modest herd growth signals improving financial conditions for producers in the state.

Ample milk supplies are keeping U.S. processors highly competitive in global markets. On a total solids basis, U.S. dairy product exports increased 8% in March compared to the previous year. U.S. cheese and butter prices have enhanced competitiveness abroad, with cheese exports up 28.7% and butter exports surging 109.9% year over year. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) monthly exports fell in March due to reduced shipments to Mexico and Southeast Asia. Despite the March pullback, NDM exports remain more than 5% higher year-to-date, and spot prices reached record highs amid tight domestic inventories and ongoing strength in both domestic and export demand.

Profitability

Dairy: Breakeven profitability - Neutral 12-month outlook

Slowing herd expansion and steady demand are balancing dairy markets, while elevated costs and ample milk supplies continue to limit upside. The neutral outlook favors disciplined cost management and cautious growth rather than expansion.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Market Best Described as Rangebound

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures:	12 to 18 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$3 to 5 Lower
Wheat Futures:	2 to 3 Higher

MILK:

There is little expectation of milk futures moving higher anytime soon. The choppy nature of the spot prices leaves traders with no specific price direction other than sideways. This keeps traders scalping the market for a small profit if realized, limiting long-term market participation. Milk output is expected to remain strong as cows respond to good weather and cow numbers increase. Expansions continue to take place, increasing cow numbers and adding to the nation's dairy herd. Increasing milk production will satisfy increased demand, eliminating concerns over supply. Nonfat dry milk will be the market to watch as the recent price activity suggests the market may have reached a plateau. If price begins to weaken, there may be a significant amount of premium eliminated from Class IV futures.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices remain in a tight range with no reason to break out of that pattern. Cheese production is higher due to increased milk production. More milk will be available for manufacturing as schools close for the summer. This may limit the upside price potential.

BUTTER:

Strong butter output with churns operating seven days per week keeps the maket well-supplied with product. Plants are not interested in building inventory and are moving supplies to the spot market as quickly as possible.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Spot Milk Supplies Tighten

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures were mixed while Class IV futures increased, with most contracts posting double-digit gains. Market fundamentals remain as they have been during the past weeks. Weather remains mostly favorable for cow comfort.

MILK:

Milk production is mostly steady at a higher level than a year ago. The spring flush continues with good weather for cow comfort. There are many discussions over whether the trend for increasing cow numbers will continue or whether cows have been held onto for calves. Once those calves are born, they will be culled. Strong output per cow does not suggest there are many cows being held onto only to obtain their calves. Otherwise, we would see milk production per cow decrease, but that has not been the case. With the current milk prices and high calf prices, cow numbers are likely to be maintained or increase further, as increased culling is not necessary to improve cash flow. If milk production this year ends as the USDA estimated on their recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand report, it would be an increase of 3.7 billion pounds from 2025.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.39
6 Month:	$18.00
9 Month:	$18.00
12 Month:	$17.99

CHEESE:

Retail demand for cheese is strong and keeps cheese moving, preventing inventory from building. However, food service demand is slower than anticipated for this time of year. Higher fuel prices and increased costs for goods and services are impacting restaurant traffic to some extent. The spot milk supply has tightened to some extent this week, with spot prices ranging from $4.00 under class to $2.00 over class. That is expected to change as schools close for the summer and more milk becomes available for manufacturing.

BUTTER:

The weakness in the butter price was a disappointment today. There had been hope that support might develop under the market, and the price could slowly trend higher. However, the weakness today may have traders questioning whether that is the case. The fact that there were 19 uncovered offers at the close of spot trading suggests upside price potential may be limited.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up .75 cent per bushel at $4.8075, July soybeans closed up 2.25 cents at $12.2900, and July soybean meal closed up $10.10 per ton at $338.50. July Chicago wheat closed down 3.50 cents at $6.7550. June live cattle closed up $5.10 at $252.80. June crude oil is down $1.32 per barrel at $100.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 63 points at 49,693, with the NASDAQ up 314 points at 26,402.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Mixed Spot Prices Frovide Little Direction

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	6 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$8.90 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$5.72 Higher
DOW JONES:	118 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	320 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.52 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased a penny to close at $1.64 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.60 with no loads traded. The dry whey price declined 2.50 cents to close at 667.50 cents with three loads traded. Class III futures are 9 cents lower to 10 cents higher. The butter price declined 2.75 cents to close at $1.6175 with only one load traded. There were 5 unfilled bids and 19 uncovered offers remaining at the close, suggesting the upside price potential is limited. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.25 cent to close at $2.2875 with six loads traded. Class IV futures are 1 cent lower to 16 cents higher. Butter futures are 1.50 cents lower to 0.97 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.52 cent lower to 0.20 cent higher. Cheese futures are 1.10 cents lower to 1.00 cent higher. Trading volume has been light across the futures complex.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Futures Prices Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

Class III milk futures on Tuesday closed mixed with that pattern continuing overnight. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand report showed a slight increase in milk production this year and slightly higher output for 2027, but that will not influence the market. Milk production continues to remain higher than a year ago, providing a plentiful supply of milk for bottling and manufacturing. Most colleges and universities are closed for the summer with school systems closing over the next few weeks. This will move more milk to manufacturing. The spot market will indicate the level of supply and demand for the time being.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain in a tight range as the spring flush continues and sufficient milk is available for the vat. Buyers see no need to be aggressive as plants want to limit building inventory.

BUTTER:

The butter price has been able to hold most of the gains since the low established on May 4. This has been encouraging as demand has improved due to lower prices. Exports remain phenomenal with the March volume doubling that of a year ago. Trading activity on the spot market is good as butter in being purchased for immediate needs and not to build inventory.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - USDA Raises Its Milk Production Estimates

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

It was somewhat of an uneventful day as Class III futures were mixed with moderate trading volume. Steady cheese and dry whey prices left little for traders to hang their hats on. Class IV futures were under more pressure despite unchanged butter and nonfat dry milk prices. USDA estimates milk output this year at 235.4 billion pounds and next year at 236.0 billion pounds.

MILK:

Traders did not have much to provide volatility or price direction in the milk futures market. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released today. USDA raised its estimate for milk production this year by 100 million pounds to a total of 235.4 billion pounds. They also released initial estimates for 2027 with milk production of 236.0 billion pounds. This was a low initial estimate, as the thinking might be that culling may increase at some point, reducing the dairy herd. Expansion may slow down due to increased costs and low milk prices. The USDA increased its estimates for milk prices for this year from the April report. The average Class III price was raised $0.10 per cwt to $17.00. The Class IV price was raised $1.35 per cwt to $19.95. The All-milk price was raised $0.75 to $21.25 per cwt. The initial estimate for 2027 is for the Class III milk price to average $17.55. The initial estimate for Class IV is $18.60. The All-milk price is estimated to average $20.95. This does not hold much hope for higher prices throughout next year.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.38
6 Month:	$18.01
9 Month:	$18.09
12 Month:	$18.01

CHEESE:

The average cheese price for this year was raised 0.50 cents to $1.65 per pound from the April estimate. The initial estimate for 2027 is $1.7150 per pound. The average dry whey price was raised this year by 0.50 cents to 66.50 cents per pound. The initial estimate for 2027 is for a price of 64.00 cents per pound.

BUTTER:

The average butter price was reduced on the World Agricultural Supply Demand report to $1.7250 per pound, down $0.09 from April. The initial estimate for 2027 is for the price to average $1.82 per pound. Nonfat dry milk was raised by $0.1950 to average $1.77 per pound. This initial estimate for 2027 was released at $1.5750 per pound.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 4.75 cents per bushel at $4.8000, July soybeans closed up 13.75 cents at $12.2675, and July soybean meal closed up $3.60 per ton at $328.40. July Chicago wheat closed up 45.00 cents at $6.7900. June live cattle closed down $1.70 at $247.70. June crude oil is up $3.93 per barrel at $102.00. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 56 points at 49,761, with the NASDAQ down 186 points at 26,088.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Spot Prices Provide Little Direction

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Higher
SOYBEANS:	12 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.30 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.47 Lower
DOW JONES:	13 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	390 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$3.58 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 0.75 cent to close at $1.63 with seven loads traded. It was positive to see the price gain, but it had little impact on Class III milk futures. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.60 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 70.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are mixed, ranging from 3 cents to 9 cents higher. The butter price remained unchanged at $1.6450 with 25 loads traded. The price initially declined to $1.6075 before buyers became more aggressive, bringing the price back up to unchanged. There were 14 unfilled bids and 15 uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading, possibly indicating a balanced market. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $2.2850 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 9-22 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.62 - 4.27 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 1.20 cents lower to 0.15 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.40 cent lower to 1.10 cents higher. The USDA raised its estimate for milk production this year by 100 million pounds to 235.4 billion pounds, with its initial estimate for 2027 at 236.0 billion pounds.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Choppy Trading Activity to Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 4 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	10 to 12 Higher

MILK:

Traders remain uncertain over the potential strength of the market moving forward. The spring flush keeps a plentiful supply of milk available for bottling and manufacturing. There is little concern over any supply tightness. Cow numbers continue to increase as some farms expand and some increase cow numbers in current facilities. This trend is not expected to change anytime soon. USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report this morning, providing updated balance sheets for grain supplies. It will also contain estimated milk production, milk prices, and dairy product prices for this year. It will also have the first estimates for these categories for 2027. The report is not a market-mover, but provides market potential.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are not expected to move very much for the time being. Supply and demand seem to be balanced, leaving prices in a tight range. Demand is good, and cheese production is strong. Manufacturing plants are running on full schedules.

BUTTER:

There had been hope that butter had found a bottom and would trend higher. However, that idea faded on Monday as selling pressure weakened the spot price again. However, the focus of traders may be on the nonfat dry milk price. Buyers may have reached a threshold. The price has declined over the past two days, but it did the same near the end of April, only to move to new highs. This will be the market to watch. Further weakness in nonfat dry milk will have a substantial impact on Class IV futures. 

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Cheese and Butterfat Export Set New Records

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class IV futures showed greater weakness as the day progressed. The weakness in nonfat dry milk seemed to be the focus rather than the weakness of butter. Cheese and butter exports reached the highest level ever as international demand remains strong.

MILK:

Class III futures were mixed as the steady cheese and dry whey prices provided little for traders to go on. However, Class IV futures came under pressure as the day progressed, with traders focusing on the weakness of nonfat dry milk. There is concern that the market may have reached a threshold. The lower U.S. prices compared to world prices should keep international demand significantly higher than a year ago. Dairy exports for milk solids equivalent increased 8.0 percent in March, resulting in the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth. March exports for butter and cheese were very strong. Both cheese and butterfat exports in March set new single-month records. There has been concern that the conflict with Iran may have an impact on dairy exports, but if there are any, it may be seen when the April report is released.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.38
6 Month:	$18.00
9 Month:	$18.08
12 Month:	$17.97

CHEESE:

Cheese exports set a one-month record in March with 63,435 metric tons exported. This was 28.7 percent above March 2025. Year-to-date exports are up 23.2 percent from the same period last year. Lactose exports totaled 37,233 metric tons, up 3.4 percent from a year ago. Year-to-date exports are 2.2 percent higher. Whey exports totaled 51,869 metric tons, up 10.8 percent from a year ago, with year-to-date exports up 9.9 percent. Whey protein concentrate +80 exports totaled 6,005 metric tons, down 31.8 percent from March 2025, with year-to-date exports down 23.3 percent.

BUTTER:

March butterfat exports showed record exports at 17,074 metric tons. This was 109.9 percent above March 2025, with year-to-date exports up 93.2 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports totaled 59,522 metric tons, down 7.8 percent from a year ago, with year-to-date exports up 4.9 percent. Whole milk powder exports totaled 3,844 metric tons, up 47.9 percent, with year-to-date exports up 59.6 percent compared to the same period in 2025.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 4.00 cents per bushel at $4.7525, July soybeans closed up 5.00 cents at $12.1300, and July soybean meal closed up $5.10 per ton at $324.80. July Chicago wheat closed up 15.00 cents at $6.3400. June live cattle closed up $0.50 at $249.40. June crude oil is up $3.01 per barrel at $98.43. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 95 points at 49,707, with the NASDAQ up 27 points at 26,274.