Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Agricultural Prices Increased in March

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures closed under pressure, with the Class IV contract showing greater losses than Class III. The agricultural prices used in calculating income over feed increased in all commodities from February.

MILK:

The May and June Class III contract fell nearly $1.00 per cwt over the past three days. During that period of time, the cheese price only declined 1.25 cents. The heightened volatility will remain and may increase as the year progresses. Short-term trading with traders scalping the market for a profit, if realized, moved the futures market outside the realm of the usual. This type of market provides frustration as well as opportunities. The March Agricultural Prices report was released today. The average corn price was $4.27 per bushel, which is an increase of $0.16 from February but down $0.30 per bushel from March 2025. The premium/supreme hay price was $230.00 per ton, up $1.00 per ton from February and down $12.00 per ton from a year ago. The All-milk price was $19.70 per cwt, up $1.40 from February, but down $2.30 from March 2025. The average soybean meal price will be released tomorrow by the FSA, which will then give us the prices to determine the income over feed for the month.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.68
6 Month:	$18.27
9 Month:	$18.27
12 Month:	$18.14

CHEESE:

It was a little surprising that the block cheese price found more aggressive buying interest rather than seeing the buyers hold for lower prices. The price may trade in a tighter range moving through the spring flush period as increased milk receipts keep the supply of milk sufficient for the cheese vat.

BUTTER:

The bottomless butter market continues to trend lower. It is not that there is a glut of butter, but a sufficient supply. Churns are operating seven days a week, and manufacturers continue to move supplies to the market as quickly as possible rather than letting inventory build at the plant level.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 3.00 cents per bushel at $4.7475, July soybeans closed down 1.50 cents at $11.9550 and July soybean meal closed down $4.90 per ton at $318.90. July Chicago wheat closed down 16.25 cents at $6.3675. June live cattle closed down $1.25 at $254.00. June crude oil is down $1.81 per barrel at $105.07. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 790 points at 49,652, with the NASDAQ up 219 points at 24,892.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 18

In California, milk production is steady. Handlers report marginal changes for April 2026 compared to the prior month. Year over year production is up. For April, some manufacturers report larger than anticipated volumes of milk going into their production facilities. Spot milk loads are available. 

In Arizona, farm level milk output is steady. Manufacturers are securing spot milk loads for their production facilities. 

Milk production varies from steady to lighter in New Mexico. 

Handlers indicate week over week milk output is mixed in the Pacific Northwest. Spot milk loads are not abundant. 

Spring milk production in the Mountain States of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado is stable. Spot milk loads are tighter. Throughout the region, Class I and IV demands are steady, while Class II and III demands are strong. 

The newest milk production report from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) shows March 2026 milk production increases for Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, and Utah. Decreases are shown for New Mexico and Washington. 

Stakeholders indicate cream production is meeting needs and spot loads are available. Cream multiples moved higher at the bottom ends of both ranges. Condensed skim milk availability and demand are steady.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Moves To a New Low

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	Unchanged
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$4.70 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.12 Lower
DOW JONES:	718 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	134 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$2.98 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased a penny to close at $1.64 with three loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.6150 with no loads traded. The dry whey price declined a penny, closing at 69.75 with two loads traded. Class III futures are 15 cents lower to 3 cents higher. The butter price decreased 2.50 cents, closing at $1.6250 with 20 loads traded. There have been 71 loads traded so far this week. The price moved below the previous low and the lowest price since Feb. 9. Grade A nonfat dry milk decreased 0.75 cent to close at $2.25 with one load traded. Class IV futures are 8-31 cents lower. Butter futures are 3.15 cents lower to 0.47 cent higher. Dry whey futures are 0.65–2.97 cents lower. Cheese futures are 0.10 cent lower to 0.50 cent higher. The March Agricultural Prices report will be released this afternoon. The report will not influence the market.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Follow-Through Weakness May Continue

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 15 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	8 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures:	3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures:	7 to 9 Lower

MILK:

Overnight trading showed moderate activity, with trading confined to the May and June Class III contracts. Follow-through weakness provides the impression of further pressure Thursday. The market environment is such that even minor movement in the underlying cash results in a substantial movement in futures. Sometimes, the market moves in the opposite direction from what cash would indicate, depending on the movement of futures leading up to that time. What is clearly evident is prices will have limited upside potential in the current market environment. USDA will release the March Agricultural Prices report Thursday afternoon, providing most of the prices used for calculating income over feed for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. The average soybean meal price will not be released until Friday.

CHEESE:

The weakness in the block cheese price on Wednesday may have buyers holding back Thursday to see whether sellers will remain aggressive. If the recent pattern holds, the prices may move back to the lows of the range again.

BUTTER:

There is concern butter price may move below the previous low again as sellers remain aggressive. Lower inventory is meaningless with production remaining strong, providing sufficient supply for demand.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - April Class III Milk Price is $16.82

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures took a beating, posting substantial losses. Nearby Class III futures fell back to the lowest levels they have been since April 9, significantly impacting the bullish attitude that had developed. The April Federal Order class prices increased from March.

MILK:

Milk futures took a beating, posting large declines. The June Class III contract moved within a penny of the limit down at one point during the afternoon. Trading volume was moderate, with the May and June contracts showing the greatest activity. Futures gave up quite a bit of hard-earned gains. Class IV futures posted similar losses throughout the rest of the year. The block cheese price neared buyer resistance of the previous high price and retreated as buyers stepped back. The spot butter prices followed the pattern of falling back after an increase of a few days. The April Federal Order prices were released today with a Class II price of $18.82. This is an increase of $1.48 from March, but a decrease of $0.40 from April 2025. The Class III price is $16.82. This is an increase of $0.66 from March, but a decrease of $0.66 from a year ago. The Class IV price is $20.22. This is an increase of $1.28 from March and an increase of $2.30 from April 2025.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.59
6 Month:	$18.24
9 Month:	$18.21
12 Month:	$18.09

CHEESE:

The block cheese price did not decline very much, but the disappointment of traders was very evident, resulting in substantial pressure on the market. There is concern that the weakness today may result in buyers being less aggressive on Thursday, with some moving to the sidelines in the near term. Spot milk prices have strengthened with reports of $3.00 under class to class. Increased manufacturing capacity has resulted in lower spot milk availability. However, milk supplies remain sufficient for demand.

BUTTER:

Butter production is strong due to plentiful milk and cream supplies. Manufacturers continue to offer supplies on the spot market at whatever prices they can receive. There is no desire or need to hold onto supplies to build inventory for later demand. Butter production is expected to remain strong throughout the rest of the year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 2.25 cents per bushel at $4.7775, July soybeans closed up 7.75 cents at $11.9700, and July soybean meal closed down $3.60 per ton at $323.80. July Chicago wheat closed down 4.75 cents at $6.5300. June live cattle closed up $1.75 at $255.25. June crude oil is up $8.05 per barrel at $107.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 280 points at 48,862, with the NASDAQ up 9 points at 24,673.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Cash Prices Drop

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	8 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$7.10 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$4.20 Higher
DOW JONES:	312 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	47 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$6.61 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 2.25 cents, closing at $1.63 with three loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.6150 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 70.75 with no loads traded. Class III futures are steady to 56 cents lower. The butter price declined 4.50 cents, closing at $1.65 with 23 cents traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 0.75 cent to close at $2.2575 with four loads traded. This is the first price decline in 17 consecutive trading days. Class IV futures are 48 cents lower, with trading taking place in only the June and August contracts. Butter futures are 1.77-6.20 cents lower. Dry whey futures are steady to 1.60 cents lower. Cheese futures are .20-3.60 cents lower. The April Federal Order class prices will be announced today.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Search For Price Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 4 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	3 to 4 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures closed lower Tuesday despite steady- to higher-cash prices. The minor gains were a disappointment to traders, resulting in selling pressure. Later-year futures contracts have maintained the uptrend despite the weakness on Tuesday. Milk production is increasing, but the market has absorbed it, keeping the outlook for milk prices better than had been anticipated earlier in the year. The April Federal Order class prices will be released Wednesday afternoon. The April Class III contract closed at $16.85 and the Class IV contract closed at $20.20. Futures and options will be settled according to the announced prices.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices remained unchanged Tuesday. This was disappointing to traders, resulting in increased selling pressure. The block cheese price is near the recent highs and may find price resistance near that level. Cheese supplies are sufficient for demand, limiting the need for buyers to be aggressive.

BUTTER:

Traders will remain cautious in the butter market. Price increases have been short-lived, keeping the market in a downtrend. This will change at some point, but so far there is no indication of price support. Even with the lower price, buyers have not had to be aggressive, as sellers have been willing to offer supplies to the spot market at lower prices to keep inventory from building at the plant level.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Traders Showed Disappointment Over Spot Prices

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures showed weakness due to traders' disappointment that spot prices did not increase as much as anticipated. This may be temporary, or it could indicate that cheese prices may have a price threshold. The April Federal Order prices will be released on Wednesday.

MILK:

Milk futures showed weakness, with most contracts posting double-digit losses. Underlying cash prices did not post weakness, with cheese prices steady and butter, nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices showing minor gains. Traders needed to see greater gains, and without those gains, they decided to bank some profits in case weakness surfaced. Increasing milk production due to the spring flush season, and output remaining significantly higher than a year ago, may limit the upside price potential. Even with the decline in futures today, prices have retained a good portion of the gains seen recently. The April Federal Order class prices will be released on Wednesday. The trade anticipates a Class III price of $16.85 and a Class IV price of $20.20.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$18.19
6 Month:	$18.68
9 Month:	$18.56
12 Month:	$18.36

CHEESE:

The block cheese price is near the high it established earlier in the month. This may cap the price potential as buyers may not want to be active and aggressive buyers at the high. There is a plentiful milk supply available for cheese production. This eliminates the concern over supplies tightening anytime soon. Most manufacturers are operating on full schedules with limited purchasing of milk from the spot market.

BUTTER:

The spot butter price increased slightly, but it took some time for traders to react in the futures market. Early losses were finally eliminated, as traders decided to cover some short positions. The minor strength in butter does not indicate support has been established, as the pattern has been that an increase in the spot price has been short-lived and resulted in lower prices. This will keep traders cautious unless proven otherwise.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 6.25 cents per bushel at $4.7550, July soybeans closed down 2.75 cents at $11.8925, and July soybean meal closed down $.40 per ton at $327.40. July Chicago wheat closed up 28.00 cents at $6.5775. June live cattle closed up $4.55 at $253.50. June crude oil is up $3.56 per barrel at $99.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 26 points at 49,142, with the NASDAQ down 223 points at 24,664.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Milk Futures Fall Back

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	4 Higher
SOYBEANS:	3 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.20 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$3.05 Higher
DOW JONES:	38 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	273 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$3.66 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

Both block and barrel cheese prices remained unchanged at $1.6525 and $1.6150, respectively. There were no loads traded in either category. The dry whey price increased 0.50 cent to close at 70.75 cents with one load traded. Class III futures were higher earlier but are currently trading 8-25 cents lower. The butter price increased 0.75 cent, closing at $1.6950 with 10 loads traded. The price initially declined to $1.6775 before buyers turned more aggressive, pushing the price into positive territory. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.50 cent to $2.2650 and is a new record high price. There were two loads traded. Class IV futures are 32 cents lower to 5 cents higher. Butter futures are 1.85 cents lower to 1.35 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.35-0.52 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.70-2.20 cents lower. The April futures and options have ceased trading, with May taking over as the lead month.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Strong Overnight Trading Activity

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	12 to 14 Higher

MILK:

Trading activity was unusually high in the overnight market. Activity took place in all Class III contracts through the end of the year. It is surprising to see the trading activity in the April contract, as Tuesday is the last day to trade April futures and options. There is no need to offset positions by the end of the contract period due to it being a cash-settled market. Minor trading activity was seen in Class IV futures, making it a second day of unusual overnight activity. Most contracts traded at a higher price, indicating further optimism Tuesday.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have maintained support with prices nearing the upper end of the price range. It may be difficult for the price to exceed the previous high under the current market. Cheese production remains strong and increasing due to high milk receipts at the plant level. Demand has been steady, limiting inventory build.

BUTTER:

Butter has been unable to find support, with any price increase being short-lived. This has kept the market in a downtrend. The butter supply is below a year ago, but that is meaningless as long as manufacturers continue to offer loads on the spot market. Even though inventory is below a year ago, there is sufficient supply for demand, with buyers unconcerned.

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Close With Strong Gains

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

It was a good day with milk futures higher. Most contracts posted double-digit gains despite limited movement in the underlying cash. It is difficult to pinpoint what provided strength, other than traders seeing the strength in other markets, resulting in some spillover emotion.

MILK:

The milk production report released last week has not negatively impacted the market despite strong milk output and increased cow numbers in March. The cold storage report was neutral, providing little support. However, traders were friendly to the market overnight and throughout the day. It is uncertain what supported milk futures today, as there was limited movement in the underlying cash. It seems that some of the strength in the outside markets may have provided some confidence for traders to step into the market aggressively. Milk output continues to increase in much of the country as the spring flush continues. Strength in milk futures is not usual during this time of year, as more milk is available.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.68
6 Month:	$18.41
9 Month:	$18.53
12 Month:	$18.36

CHEESE:

Cheese production is steady as the milk supply is plentiful. Cheese output has been above the previous year for quite some time, according to the monthly dairy products reports, but inventory is slightly below a year ago. This would indicate good demand despite higher food prices across the board. Consumers want cheese and are willing to keep it in their diet.

BUTTER:

The butter price is unable to trend higher consistently. Gains have been limited to a very short time before buyers step back and wait for lower prices. There is no shortage of butter available, with manufacturers wanting to sell supplies at whatever price they can receive.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 5.75 cents per bushel at $4.6925, July soybeans closed up 13.50 cents at $11.9200, and July soybean meal closed up $8.70 per ton at $327.80. July Chicago wheat closed up 13.00 cents at $6.2975. June live cattle closed up $3.73 at $248.95. June crude oil is up $2.33 per barrel at $96.73. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 63 points at 49,168, with the NASDAQ up 51 points at 24,887.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Milk Futures Post Strong Gains

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Higher
SOYBEANS:	14 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$9.00 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$2.67 Higher
DOW JONES:	97 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	39 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$2.10 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 0.75 cent, closing at $1.6525 with one load traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.6150. The dry whey price increased 0.50 cent, closing at 70.25 with no loads traded. Class III futures are 1-36 cents higher, with the July contract moving above $19.00. The butter price decreased 1.75 cents to close at $1.6875 with 18 loads traded. The price initially declined to $1.6800 before buyer interest brought it up from the low. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $2.26 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 5-31 cents higher. Butter futures are 1.35-4.57 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.87-2.00 cents higher. Cheese futures are 0.20 cent lower to 2.30 cents higher.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Dairy Futures Exhibit Strong Activity

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 15 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 5 Higher
Soybean Futures:	4 to 5 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures:	4 to 6 Higher

MILK:

There was some trading excitement in the overnight market with both Class III and IV contracts traded. The overnight volume was strong in Class III futures, with the May contract gaining as much as $0.38 and June up $0.37. The May contract had a volume of 220 traded overnight. However, the current bids and offers are below those prices, potentially indicating that the excitement ran its course. The March Cold Storage report should not have triggered the buying interest overnight, as the report was neutral. Milk output remains strong, providing sufficient supply for bottling and manufacturing.

CHEESE:

Cheese inventory in March was below that of March 2025, but supplies are sufficient for demand. Buyers in the spot market have not been very aggressive, as strong milk production will keep cheese production strong. The block cheese price is nearing the top end of the range and may find buyer resistance at that level.

BUTTER:

Traders are expected to exhibit caution in the butter market. The pattern has been that a bounce in price has been short-lived, and the aftermath has been lower prices. It would seem feasible that the current butter price would generate strong buying interest, but sufficient supplies keep buyers unconcerned over supply.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Cheese and Butter Inventories Increased

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class IV futures had a very strong day with both the May and June contracts closing at new contract highs above $22.00. All contracts through November close at new contract highs. The March Cold Storage report showed all categories posting an increase in inventory.

MILK:

Class IV contracts from May through November closed at new contract highs, supported by the rebound in the butter price. The April contracts showed no change in either class of milk, as the last trading day for the contract will be on Tuesday. The milk production report earlier this week showed strong milk output, with only four of the top 24 states showing production declines from a year earlier. Washington showed the largest decline, with production down 5.8%. New Mexico declined 3.2%, Pennsylvania was down 2.3%, and Illinois was down 0.7%. The largest gain took place in Kansas, with a production increase of 25.4%. It also had the largest cow numbers with an increase of 47,000 head from a year ago. South Dakota has shown double-digit gains for numerous months but slowed to a year-over-year gain of 6.9%. All of the other states showed production increases of less than 6.0%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.52
6 Month:	$18.26
9 Month:	$18.43
12 Month:	$18.24

CHEESE:

For the week, block increased 6.75 cents with 43 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.6190. Barrels increased by 4.00 cents with no loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.5910. Dry whey increased 0.75 cent with two loads traded. The weekly average price is 69.95 cents. The March Cold Storage report showed American cheese inventory increasing 10.7 million pounds from February, totaling 801.6 million pounds. This is 3% below March 2025. Swiss cheese inventory increased 127,000 pounds, totaling 24.8 million pounds. This is 4% above a year ago. Other cheese inventory totaled 575.0 million pounds, up 2.7 million pounds from February, but down 1% from a year ago. Total cheese inventory reached 1.401 billion pounds. This was an increase of 13.5 million pounds, but it is 2% below a year ago.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter increased 1.50 cents with 94 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.7010. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 6.00 cents with nine loads traded. The weekly average price is $2.2370. Butter inventory in March increased by 32.8 million pounds, totaling 288.8 million pounds. This was 11% below March 2025.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed down 0.25 cent per bushel at $4.6350, July soybeans closed up 3.75 cents at $11.7850, and July soybean meal closed up $2.60 per ton at $319.10. July Chicago wheat closed down 3.50 cents at $6.1675. June live cattle closed up $1.73 at $245.23. June crude oil is down $1.45 per barrel at $94.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 80 points at 49,231, with the NASDAQ is up 398 points at 24,837.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Bounce in Butter Prices

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Lower
SOYBEANS:	3 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$3.10 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.55 Higher
DOW JONES:	189 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	25 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$2.36 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased a penny, closing at $1.6450 with three loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.6150 with no loads traded. The dry whey price increased 0.25 cent to close at 69.75 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 4 cents lower to 22 cents higher. The butter price increased 6.00 cents, closing at $1.7050 with five loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk remained unchanged at $2.26 with three loads traded. Class IV futures are 9-50 cents higher with both the May and June contracts above $22.00. Butter futures are 0.72 cents lower to 4.52 cents higher. Dry whey futures are 0.40-0.75 cents lower. Cheese futures are 0.10-2.80 cents higher. USDA will release the March Milk Production report this afternoon. Inventory is expected to increase but remain below a year ago.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Increasing Cow Numbers and Higher Milk Production

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Milk output continues to remain significantly higher than a year ago. Cow numbers continue to increase despite the average slaughter of dairy cattle. Cow numbers in March were 187,000 head more than in March 2025. Kansas had the highest increase, with cow numbers up 51,000 head from a year ago. Texas showed an increase of 34,000 head, with Wisconsin up 28,000 head. Other states in the top 24 showed lower increases or declines. The trend for increased milk production and cow numbers is expected to continue throughout this year. USDA will release the March Cold Storage report Friday afternoon.

CHEESE:

The increase in the barrel cheese price was bound to happen as the price had remained unchanged for a time. The minor increase in blocks may indicate the price may have difficulty increasing much further, as increased cheese production keeps sufficient supplies available to the market.

BUTTER:

The weakness of butter has been surprising. Sellers keep offering it to the market to keep inventory from building at the plant level. Butter inventory being significantly below a year ago has had no impact on buyers as they continue to purchase supplies at lower prices. The U.S. price is about $0.95 per pound below the world price, which will keep international interest strong. 

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Cattle Slaughter Increased

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures did not respond as was anticipated in reaction to the movement of underlying cash. The increase in cheese and nonfat dry milk supported futures but did not propel them higher. March dairy cattle slaughter increased from a year ago.

MILK:

Class III futures were mixed but mostly higher with gains confined to single digits. The slight increase in the block cheese price provided the support. The gain in the barrel cheese price has no impact on the Class III price calculation and provides no direct support. Indirectly, it may have some influence, as an increase in the barrel price may mean an increase in demand. March dairy cattle slaughter totaled 239,200 head, an increase of 1,900 head from February and 21,300 head less than March 2025. This stands to reason, as February had three fewer days than March. This should be positive for the market, but the nation's cow numbers have increased by 187,000 head over March 2025. The advanced Class I price for May is $20.15 per cwt. This is up $1.49 from April and $1.78 higher than May 2025.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.39
6 Month:	$18.14
9 Month:	$18.34
12 Month:	$16.15

CHEESE:

The milk supply is sufficient for demand, but reports from the Midwest region indicate that there are fewer spot loads available on the market. However, at the same time, cheese manufacturers are not purchasing large volumes from the spot market as they have sufficient milk from patrons and regular suppliers. Spot milk prices have increased slightly from a week ago, with prices now $5.00 under class to class.

BUTTER:

Even though there is increased demand from Class II product production, butter manufacturers have not been purchasing much cream from the spot market, as they have sufficient from regular suppliers. Retail demand is reported as steady, while food service demand has slowed.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 1.25 cents per bushel at $4.5550, May soybeans closed down 4.75 cents at $11.5975, and July soybean meal closed up $.20 per ton at $316.50. July Chicago wheat closed up 13.25 cents at $6.2025. June live cattle closed up $0.43 at $243.50. June crude oil is up $2.89 per barrel at $95.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 180 points at 49,310, with the NASDAQ down 219 points at 24,439.

Fluid Milk and Cream - Western U.S. Report 17

In California, milk production is generally steady. Handlers report marginal differences in milk output for weeks 16 or 15 compared to week 14. April milk production is up slightly compared to the prior month. Handlers convey this year's peak spring volumes are lasting longer. Some manufacturers note milk intakes at their processing facilities are above anticipated volumes. 2026 year over year milk production remains up. Processors describe milk volumes as balanced compared to processing capacities. 

In Arizona, farm level milk output is steady. Some manufacturers continue to secure spot milk loads for open processing capacity. 

In New Mexico, milk production is lighter. Stakeholders note New Mexico milk output trends are somewhat ahead of Colorado milk output trends in week 17. 

Pacific Northwest milk production varies from somewhat lighter to somewhat stronger. Spot milk loads are tight. 

Farm level milk outputs in the Mountain States of Idaho, Utah, and Colorado are mixed. Manufacturers indicate milk volumes are more balanced to processing capacities this week. Class I, III, and IV demands are steady, while Class II demand is stronger. 

Spot cream loads are available. Demand is stronger, but sellers don't always receive interest at a price point for making a transaction. Cream multiples are unchanged for week 17. Condensed skim milk loads are available. Condensed skim milk demand is mixed. Some stakeholders note it is down from last year.

Thursday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Barrels Show a Strong Price Increase

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	6 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	Unchanged
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.52 Higher
DOW JONES:	360 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	244 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$3.60 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 0.50 cent, closing at $1.6350 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese price jumped 4.00 cents, closing at $1.6150 with no loads traded. There was one unfilled bid and one uncovered offer in barrels at the close of spot trading. The dry whey price decreased a penny, closing at 69.50 cents with one load traded. Class III futures are mixed from 13 cents lower to 6 cents higher. The butter price continued to show weakness, with the price decreasing 5.50 cents, closing at $1.6450 with 14 loads traded. This is the lowest price since Feb. 10. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased a penny to close at $2.26 with no loads traded. Class IV futures are 4 cents lower to 8 cents higher. Butter futures are 3.75 cents lower to 0.85 cent higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 0.70 cent higher. Cheese futures are 1.2 cents lower to 0.50 cent higher. USDA will release the March Livestock Slaughter report this afternoon.

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Trade Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	2 to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	4 to 5 Higher

MILK:

Milk production remained strong in March, running 2.3% above March 2025. Cow numbers increased by 8,000 head, which will keep a significant volume of milk available to the market moving through the spring flush. This direction will continue as the year progresses. Expansions continue to take place as the income from milk and the high price for calves have put many farms in a good financial position. Obviously, it would be nice to see higher milk prices, but the current level of supply and demand has not put the market in a bullish posture. Strong milk output is being absorbed by domestic and international demand, but the current level of demand and production may limit the upside price potential.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to remain in a range as production is sufficient for demand. The March Cold Storage report will be released on Friday, indicating the amount of increase in inventory. Seasonally, inventory will increase, but the level of increase will indicate demand.

BUTTER:

Sellers continue to offer butter on the spot market. They are moving butter at whatever price they can to limit the buildup of inventory at the plant level. Buyers remain active, but not aggressive. There is no concern over a tightening supply at present. International demand remains strong due to the U.S. price being substantially below the world price.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Milk Production Up 2.3%

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Milk futures did not increase as much as anticipated with the increase in block cheese and nonfat dry milk. March milk production was 2.3% above March 2025, with cow numbers up 8,000 head from February, totaling 9.621 million head.

MILK:

As the day progressed, Class IV futures weakened as traders seemed to take profits after early price strength. Near the end of the day, the May and June contracts posted double-digit losses. That may not be where they are settled for the day due to the CME settling the contracts two hours before trading closes. That is why the end-of-the-day trading does not always coincide with settlement prices. The March Milk Production report showed production in the top 24 states up 2.4% over March 2025. Production per cow averaged 2,133 pounds, up 7 pounds from a year ago. Cow numbers were 8,000 head more than in February. Milk production in the U.S. increased 2.3% from March 2025. Production per down averaged 2,119 pounds. Cow numbers increased by 8,000 head from February, totaling 9.621 million head. First-quarter milk production was 2.9% higher than the same period in 2025.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.42
6 Month:	$18.12
9 Month:	$18.31
12 Month:	$18.14

CHEESE:

The block cheese price increased but moved within the recent sideways price range. The price is expected to remain supported, but range-bound in the near term. Trading interest has increased with 38 loads traded so far this week. Buyers are purchasing to increase ownership, while sellers want to limit the buildup of inventory at the plant level.

BUTTER:

Butter continues to have a difficult time finding support. It looked like the price was going to settle at another new low this month, but buying interest increased during spot trading, bringing the price up from the lows. There were 75 loads traded so far this week.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up .50 cent per bushel at $4.5425, May soybeans closed down 10.00 cents at $11.6450 and July soybean meal closed down $4.90 per ton at $316.30. July Chicago wheat closed down 5.75 cents at $6.0700. June live cattle closed down $0.48 at $243.08. June crude oil is up $3.21 per barrel at $92.88. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 341 points at 49,490, with the NASDAQ up 398 points at 24,658.

March Milk Production up 2.4 Percent

March Milk Production up 2.4 Percent        

Milk production in the 24 major States during March totaled 19.6 billion pounds, up 2.4 percent from March 2025. February revised production, at 17.5 billion pounds, was up 3.0 percent from February 2025. The February revision represented a decrease of 11 million pounds or 0.1 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate.  Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,133 pounds for March, 7 pounds above March 2025.   The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 9.18 million head, 188,000 head more than March 2025, and 8,000 head more than February 2026.   

January-March Milk Production up 2.9 Percent  

Milk production in the United States during the January - March quarter totaled 58.5 billion pounds, up 2.9 percent from the January - March quarter last year.  The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.61 million head, 50,000 head more than the October - December quarter, and 204,000 head more than the same period last year. 

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Nonfat Dry Milk Marches Higher

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	1 Higher
SOYBEANS:	7 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.60 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.25 Lower
DOW JONES:	295 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	344 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$3.23 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 3.00 cents, closing at $1.6300 with 11 loads traded. No unfilled bids or uncovered offers remained at the close of spot trading. Interest in doing business has been strong so far this week, with 38 loads changing hands. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.5750 with no loads traded. The dry whey price increased 0.50 cent to close at 70.50 with one load traded. Class III futures are 13 cents lower to 13 cents higher. The butter price decreased 2.00 cents, closing at $1.70 with 17 loads traded. The price initially decreased by 4.75 cents before buying interest gained back some of the loss. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 3.50 cents to close at $2.25 with six loads traded. There is no end in sight to the price strength. Class IV futures are 15 to 32 cents higher. Butter futures are 1.27 to 7.32 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.65 to 1.75 cents higher. Cheese futures are 0.60 cent lower to 1.00 cents higher. The March Milk Production report will be released Wednesday. I estimate milk output to be up 2.7% from March 2025, with cow numbers up 5,000 head from February.

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Strong Trading Activity in Class IV Futures

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	5 to 10 Higher
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

Class III milk futures may be supported, but may have limited upside price potential in the near term. The block cheese price is expected to remain rangebound as increasing milk production leaves plentiful milk supplies available for the vat. The dry whey price is historically good, but it is not seeing the same strength as nonfat dry milk. The supply of dry whey is sufficient for demand. Class IV futures showed trading activity overnight, which is unusual. Trading volume was exceptional for Class IV contracts. USDA will release the March Milk Production report Wednesday. I estimate milk output to be up 2.7% from March 2025, with cow numbers up 5,000 head from February.

CHEESE:

The cheese supply is sufficient for demand, with increased output potentially exceeding demand, resulting in inventory close to what it was a year ago. However, high fuel costs will increase prices, potentially impacting demand. The March Cold Storage report will be released on Friday, providing a picture of supply and demand. However, the impact of high fuel prices may not be seen until the April report.

BUTTER:

The butter price will have a difficult time finding much upside price potential in the near term. Even though cream supplies have tightened due to demand for ice cream production and the increase in other Class II product production, churning remains active. Sellers are moving butter to the spot market to reduce inventory build at the plant level.

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Class IV Futures Post Substantial Gains

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures were mixed, but mostly higher. Class IV futures showed substantial gains due to the continued strength of nonfat dry milk. USDA will release the March Milk Production report on Wednesday.

MILK:

Class III milk futures were moderately higher, with the May and June contracts showing the most gains. A few contracts showed minor losses, but the gain in the block cheese price provided support. Class IV futures showed strong gains with June moving above $22.00 and July over $21.00 during the day. The continued strength in nonfat dry milk is providing substantial support to futures. There will be a point at which demand will slow, and the nonfat dry milk prices will reach a threshold, but it is uncertain as to what level that will be. USDA will release the March Milk Production report on Wednesday. I estimate milk output to be up 2.7% from March 2025, with cow numbers up 5,000 head from February.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.35
6 Month:	$18.05
9 Month:	$18.23
12 Month:	$18.08

CHEESE:

Even though the block cheese price provided support to the market, futures are moving no better than sideways. Increasing milk production is providing sufficient milk for demand. Cheese output is heavy, but plants have the capacity to handle the extra milk. This important aspect is whether demand will continue to absorb the extra cheese being produced. The March Cold Storage report will be released on Friday, indicating whether demand is keeping up with supply.

BUTTER:

The butter price remains in a downtrend, with price increases being followed by a lower price. Butter inventory is below a year ago, but the market is focused on the continued supply being offered to the market. There have already been 58 loads of butter traded on the spot market this week.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 1.75 cents per bushel at $4.5375, May soybeans closed up 8.75 cents at $11.7450, and July soybean meal closed steady at $321.20. July Chicago wheat closed up 6.75 cents at $6.1275. June live cattle closed down $2.53 at $243.55. June crude oil is up $2.93 per barrel at $90.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 293 points at 49,149, with the NASDAQ down 144 points at 24,260.

Tuesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Nonfat Dry Milk Pushes Higher

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Higher
SOYBEANS:	9 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.40 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.12 Lower
DOW JONES:	133 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	82 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$2.52 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 1.50 cents to close at $1.60 with 17 loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.5750 with no loads traded. The dry whey price remained unchanged at 70.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 14 cents lower to 23 cents higher. The butter price decreased 1.50 cents, closing at $1.72 with nine loads traded. Butter is having a difficult time finding consistent buyer support. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 1.50 cents to close at 2.2150 with no loads traded. Buyers continue to look for product and need to bid up to obtain it. There were four unfilled bids and one uncovered offer at the close of spot trading. Sellers seem to have a limited supply and want higher prices to let it go. Class IV futures are 13 to 34 cents higher. Butter futures are 0.02 to 5.65 cents lower. Dry whey futures have not yet been traded. Cheese futures are 0.10 cent lower to 2.50 cents higher.

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Markets to Remain Choppy

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Steady to 1 Lower
Soybean Futures:	4 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher
Wheat Futures:	Mixed

MILK:

The spread between Class III and Class IV futures continues to widen. Most of the strength in Class IV futures has been the result of nonfat dry milk. The rebound of butter on Monday added further support to the market, even though the nonfat dry milk price remained unchanged. Both cheese and butter production remain strong, resulting in limited upside potential for prices. Milk receipts continue to increase at the plant level in much of the nation as the spring flush continues. Manufacturers are moving supplies to the spot market rather than building inventory. The March Milk Production report will be released Wednesday and is expected to show higher milk production and cow numbers.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may have difficulty showing much strength over the next few months. Increased milk production will keep cheese production strong and spot milk supplies readily available at a discount to class. Demand may be sufficient to keep cheese inventory from growing, but it may not be sufficient to increase prices.

BUTTER:

The bounce in the spot butter price on Monday did not change the direction of the market. The price remains in a downtrend and is unable to find solid support. Butter inventory is below a year ago, but manufacturers intend to move supplies to the market rather than build inventory.