Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Uncertainty Dominates the Market

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	5 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures:	$2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures:	6 to 8 Higher

MILK:

It may be difficult for Class III milk futures to regain the recent losses and to trend higher. The upside price potential may be limited due to the spring flush, increasing the available milk supply. The March Milk Production report will be released on Wednesday and is expected to show higher milk output than a year ago. The percent of gain will not be as much due to the strong year-over-year gains last year. However, the gain should be significant. This trend is expected to continue this year as cow numbers increase. The Class IV price is a different story as nonfat dry milk continues to increase due to tight supplies.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are potentially establishing a sideways pattern for the time being. The fundamentals are not supportive enough to regain the losses and develop an uptrend. Cheese production is increasing as milk receipts are higher at the plant level. Demand is good, keeping inventory slightly below a year ago, but it is not good enough to turn buyers aggressive.

BUTTER:

The butter price is unable to find support. Recent price strength has been met with further weakness as the price falls below the previous low. Manufacturers continue to move supplies to the market even though inventory is below that of a year ago. Buyers continue to purchase butter, but they are holding back and purchasing at lower prices.

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Grade A Non-Fat Dry Milk the Star of the Week

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Grade A non-fat dry milk had an amazing week with record-breaking prices every day this week. The demand is unfaltering, and it is supporting Class IV despite butter's massive decline.

MILK:

Class IV Milk had a small setback from last week's close but is still firmly above $21.00 for the May and June futures contracts. Class III milk fell below $17.00 on the May contract today, falling 42 cents to the low of the week and rebounding back to $16.97 at the close. Spring flush is here, and production is ramping up in an already saturated market. The Strait of Hormuz is currently open, the stock market is rallying, while crude has fallen sharply. Should the canal remain open, this should support demand with economic support and help with fuel costs on farm and to ship products.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.24
6 Month:	$17.97
9 Month:	$18.11
12 Month:	$17.96

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks declined 3.15 cents with 22 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.5765. Barrels declined 0.90 cents with no loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.5750. Dry whey increased 0.30 cents with four loads traded. The weekly average price is 70 cents. Blocks had moderate interest this week, while there was limited to no interest in buying or selling barrels. Traders are expecting steady prices for the next few weeks and optimism for retail demand.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter increased 0.80 cents with 47 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.7505. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 13.45 cents with 22 loads traded. The weekly average price is $2.1640. Butter had a little excitement this week, peaking at $1.79 on Tuesday and falling to $1.69 by Friday. That 10-cent drop weighed heavily on Class IV prices, however Grade A non-fat dry milk was the star of the show, making new record highs every single day in a historic rally, peaking at $2.20 at Friday's close.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

May corn closed up 0.25 cent per bushel at $4.4875, May soybeans closed up 3.50 cents at $11.6725 and May soybean meal closed down $.90 per ton at $331.80. May Chicago wheat closed down 7.25 cents at $5.9125. June live cattle closed down $0.28 at $247.35. May crude oil is down 10.84 per barrel at $83.85. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 868 points at 49,447 and the NASDAQ is up 365 points at 24,468.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Falls Again

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	2 Lower
SOYBEANS:	1 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.17 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.08 Lower
DOW JONES:	1099 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	408 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$11.60 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 0.75 cent to close at $1.5775 with 15 loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.5750 with no loads traded and no bids or offers on the table yet again. The dry whey price increased 1 cent to close at 69.00 cents, with three loads traded and six offers left at the close. Class III futures are trading 6 cents lower to 6 cents higher. The butter price fell 4.75 cents, closing at $1.69 with 12 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 1.75 cents to close at $2.20 with two loads traded, another record-breaking day. Class IV futures are 8 to 14 cents lower. Butter futures are 0.375 cent lower to 0.7 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 0.05 cents lower to 0.625 cents lower. Cheese futures are 0.7 cents lower to 0.1 cents higher.