Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Dairy Exports Fell 5.0%

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures found strength while Class IV futures weakened. The increase in the block cheese price did not indicate a change in trend. The market will need to prove itself before the trend changes. Dairy exports in June declined 5.0%, marking the first year-over-year decline since September 2025.

MILK:

Milk futures are expected to retain the choppy pattern for the near term and maybe longer if the supply and demand balance does not change. Growth in demand may be offset by growth in milk production if the current pattern does not change. The impact of hot weather is diminishing as the days continue to march their way through August. Milk output has rebounded after a hot weather period a few weeks ago. However, production has not recovered to the level it was before the hot period, and components have not entirely regained what was lost. Production remains above a year ago and is expected to do so throughout the rest of the year. Dairy exports in June declined 5.0% from June 2025. This was the first year-over-year decline since September 2025. However, even with the decline, exports for the first half of the year are 9.0% above the first half of 2025. Butter and cheese exports remained strong.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.32
6 Month:	$17.47
9 Month:	$17.50
12 Month:	$17.57

CHEESE:

Cheese exports in June totaled 64,604 metric tons, up 23.9% from June 2025. Year-to-date exports are 23.7% higher than the same time last year. Lactose exports declined 18.5 percent, totaling 35,801 metric tons. Year-to-date exports are 0.1% above the same period last year. Whey exports totaled 51,288 metric tons, up 2.4% from a year ago. Year-to-date exports are 19.7% above the same period last year. Whey protein concentrate +80 declined 15.3% from June 20205 with year-to-date exports down 20.7% from the same period last year.

BUTTER:

June butterfat exports were strong, totaling 12,982 metric tons, up 48.1% from June 2025. The rate of increase from the previous year is slowing, which is understandable, as the recent growth over the past few years has been phenomenal, and maintaining the pace on a year-over-year basis remains difficult. June of 2024, exports totaled 4,995 metric tons. June 2025 showed exports at 8,768 metric tons. This is exceptional growth, but exports are slowing from the pace earlier this year. Year-to-date butterfat exports are 83.9% higher than in the same period last year. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports declined 19.1%, totaling 47,994 metric tons. Year-to-date exports are down 3.2% from the same period last year. Whole milk powder exports fell 34.5% to 3,279 metric tons. However, year-to-date exports were 12.4% above a year ago.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down .25 cent per bushel at $4.6175, November soybeans closed up 3.25 cents at $11.7950, and December soybean meal closed down $1.80 per ton at $311.60. September Chicago wheat closed up 0.75 cent at $6.4050. October live cattle closed up $1.63 at $226.90. September crude oil is up $4.17 per barrel at $82.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 61 points at 53,976, with the NASDAQ down 85 points at 26,605.

Monday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Block Cheese Extends Gain

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	Unchanged
SOYBEANS:	5 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$0.40 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$1.55 Higher
DOW JONES:	139 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	103 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$3.58 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price increased 5.00 cents to close at $1.6050 with seven loads traded. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.5475 with no loads traded. The dry whey price slipped 0.25 cent to close at 69.25 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are 4 cents lower to 25 cents higher with the August contract showing the only loss. The butter price decreased 1.50 cents to close at $1.4975 with four loads traded. There were 53 uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 0.25 cent to close at $1.5800 with eight loads traded. There has not been any trading activity in Class IV futures. Butter futures are steady to 4.85 cents lower. Dry whey futures are steady to 0.25 cent higher. Cheese futures are 0.10 cent lower to 1.90 cents higher. Nonfat dry milk futures are steady to 1.27 cents lower.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Wait For Further Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	2 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures:	5 to 6 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures:	6 to 8 Higher

MILK:

There is little expectation for a specific price direction to begin the week. Fundamentals remain much the same as they have been. Traders are uncertain whether demand will keep up with milk production. Bottling demand for the school systems will reduce the milk available for manufacturing, but that is not expected to tighten the market. There is little expectation for any significant improvement in milk prices in the near term. Seasonal buying interest for dairy products should increase, but with sufficient supplies currently available, the upside price potential may be limited.

CHEESE:

Cheese is struggling to find and maintain support. It may be difficult for prices to return to the levels they were on July 23, before the market fell back. The weakness during the time of the year when prices usually see strength is not a good sign of price strength moving forward.

BUTTER:

The butter price is expected to remain choppy. There have been substantial volumes of loads traded, yet there remains a substantial amount of uncovered offers at the end of spot trading. Butter supplies are plentiful for the time being. Buyers in the spot market have not needed to be aggressive in purchasing for immediate needs or to build inventory for later in the year.