Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Cheese and Butterfat Export Set New Records

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class IV futures showed greater weakness as the day progressed. The weakness in nonfat dry milk seemed to be the focus rather than the weakness of butter. Cheese and butter exports reached the highest level ever as international demand remains strong.

MILK:

Class III futures were mixed as the steady cheese and dry whey prices provided little for traders to go on. However, Class IV futures came under pressure as the day progressed, with traders focusing on the weakness of nonfat dry milk. There is concern that the market may have reached a threshold. The lower U.S. prices compared to world prices should keep international demand significantly higher than a year ago. Dairy exports for milk solids equivalent increased 8.0 percent in March, resulting in the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year growth. March exports for butter and cheese were very strong. Both cheese and butterfat exports in March set new single-month records. There has been concern that the conflict with Iran may have an impact on dairy exports, but if there are any, it may be seen when the April report is released.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$17.38
6 Month:	$18.00
9 Month:	$18.08
12 Month:	$17.97

CHEESE:

Cheese exports set a one-month record in March with 63,435 metric tons exported. This was 28.7 percent above March 2025. Year-to-date exports are up 23.2 percent from the same period last year. Lactose exports totaled 37,233 metric tons, up 3.4 percent from a year ago. Year-to-date exports are 2.2 percent higher. Whey exports totaled 51,869 metric tons, up 10.8 percent from a year ago, with year-to-date exports up 9.9 percent. Whey protein concentrate +80 exports totaled 6,005 metric tons, down 31.8 percent from March 2025, with year-to-date exports down 23.3 percent.

BUTTER:

March butterfat exports showed record exports at 17,074 metric tons. This was 109.9 percent above March 2025, with year-to-date exports up 93.2 percent compared to the same period a year ago. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports totaled 59,522 metric tons, down 7.8 percent from a year ago, with year-to-date exports up 4.9 percent. Whole milk powder exports totaled 3,844 metric tons, up 47.9 percent, with year-to-date exports up 59.6 percent compared to the same period in 2025.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

July corn closed up 4.00 cents per bushel at $4.7525, July soybeans closed up 5.00 cents at $12.1300, and July soybean meal closed up $5.10 per ton at $324.80. July Chicago wheat closed up 15.00 cents at $6.3400. June live cattle closed up $0.50 at $249.40. June crude oil is up $3.01 per barrel at $98.43. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 95 points at 49,707, with the NASDAQ up 27 points at 26,274.

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Wait for Cash Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	4 to 8 Higher
Butter Futures:	1 to 2 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures:	10 to 14 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures:	$3 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures:	6 to 8 Higher

MILK:

Futures trading is expected to be subdued ahead of spot trading. Traders need direction from the underlying cash before determining how aggressive they will be one way or the other. There was another surprising trade that took place overnight, shortly after the opening. There were two trades in the June contract at 28 cents higher. This again must have been a market order, as the current bid and offer are below the price. If the butter price has found a bottom and will trend higher, this price increase will be supported, but that remains to be seen. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand report will be released Tuesday. It will provide estimates for milk production, milk prices, and dairy product prices for this year and initial estimates for 2027.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices are expected to trade in the tight range that has developed recently. There is little reason for buyers to become aggressive for extended periods, as cheese production is sufficient for demand. Prices are expected to remain choppy.

BUTTER:

There is hope the butter price may have found support. The spot price only retraced one day before buyers became aggressive again. The pattern of prices falling back to new lows after a gain may have changed as demand is steady to higher.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter Reverses the Weakness

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	5 Higher
SOYBEANS:	18 Higher
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$2.20 Higher
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.62 Lower
DOW JONES:	9 Points Higher
NASDAQ:	380 Points Higher
CRUDE OIL:	$0.81 Higher

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price declined 0.75 cent to close at $1.6225 with two loads traded. The barrel cheese prices remained unchanged at $1.60 with no loads traded. The dry whey price increased 0.50 cent to close at 70.00 cents with two loads traded. Class III futures are 11 cents lower to 6 cents higher. The butter price gained 3.50 cents to close at $1.6650 with twenty-two loads traded. The price fluctuated from a low of $1.63 to a high of $1.67 before settling 0.50 cent off the high. There were 6 unfilled bids and 17 uncovered offers remaining at the close. Apparently, the sellers see no need to be aggressive but may wait to see if buyers will come up to their offers. Grade A nonfat dry milk declined 0.50 cent to close at $2.2900 with one load traded. Class IV futures from 21 cents lower to 15 cents higher. Butter futures 0.77 -- 6.50 cents higher. Dry whey futures are steady to 1.00 cent higher. Cheese futures are 1.70 cents lower to 0.10 cent higher.