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Wednesday, April 21, 2021

March Milk Production up 2.0 Percent, Jan- March Up 1.0 Percent

March Milk Production up 2.0 Percent 

Milk production in the 24 major States during March totaled 18.8 billion pounds, up 2.0 percent from March 2020. February revised production, at 16.9 billion pounds, was down 1.1 percent from February 2020. However, production was 2.5 percent above last year after adjusting for the leap year. The February revision represented an increase of 36 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's preliminary production estimate. 

Production per cow in the 24 major States averaged 2,104 pounds for March, 19 pounds above March 2020. 

The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major States was 8.95 million head, 93,000 head more than March 2020, and 7,000 head more than February 2021. 

January-March Milk Production up 1.0 Percent 

Milk production in the United States during the January - March quarter totaled 56.7 billion pounds, up 1.0 percent from the January - March quarter last year. 

The average number of milk cows in the United States during the quarter was 9.46 million head, 29,000 head more than the October - December quarter, and 80,000 head more than the same period last year.

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - March Milk Production Up 1.8%


Milk futures weakened somewhat Wednesday, and rightly so. Block cheese and dry whey prices slipped. Not only that, but milk production increased in March about as expected. USDA reported milk production in the top 24 states increased 2.0% from March 2020, totaling 18.84 billion pounds. Production per cow averaged 2,104 pounds or 19 pounds more than the same month last year. Cow numbers totaled 8.95 million head. This was 7,000 head more than February and 93,000 more than March 2020. Milk output for the U.S. was 1.8% above March 2020, totaling 19.75 billion pounds. Milk production per cow reached 2,086 pounds, up 20 pounds per cow. Cow numbers totaled 9.468 million head, up 8,000 head from February and up 77,000 head from a year ago. The increase in milk production was expected, but the increase of cow numbers was quite a bit more than anticipated. First-quarter milk production increased 1.0% compared to the same period last year. Ten of the top 24 states showed production declines. Florida declined 7.3%, Vermont declined 4.3%, Arizona declined 3.1%, Utah declined 2.6%, Virginia declined 2.2%, Georgia declined 1.8%, Pennsylvania declined 1.5%, Washington declined 1.2%, New Mexico declined 1.1% and Oregon was down 0.9%. South Dakota showed the greatest percentage gain with an increase of 13.4% followed by Indiana, gaining 10.0%. The May Federal Order Class I price was announced at $17.10, up $1.59 from April.


3 Month: $18.68
6 Month: $18.92
9 Month: $18.80
12 Month: $18.57


Manufacturers are full of milk with some plants that have not implemented production restrictions urging their patrons to cut back on production or at least limit gains. Spot milk is running around $5 below class, primarily in the Midwest. Cheese demand is strong with buyers aggressively looking for supplies at times. The overall market is uncertain, which may move prices into a sideways range for a while.


There is some tightening of cream supplies, but for the most part, plants indicate there is steady supply of milk and cream to keep churns busy. Butter sales to the foodservice sector are improving while retail sales are showing some weakness. USDA will release the March Cold Storage report Thursday. It will be interesting to see how much inventory has increased or if the increase in restaurant demand has minimized the increase of stocks.


May corn jumped 19 cents, closing at $6.2550. May soybeans jumped 25.25 cents, closing at $14.9725, with May soybean meal up $1.90, closing at $412.30 per ton. May wheat jumped 13.50 cents, closing at $6.3725. April live cattle declined $0.80, ending at $119.75. June crude oil fell $1.32 per barrel, closing at $61.35. The Dow gained 316 points, ending at 34,137, while the NASDAQ gained 160 points, ending at 13,947.

Wednesday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Block Cheese and Dry Whey Decline

Block cheese prices slipped 0.50 cents closing at $1.7950 with 4 loads traded. Barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.8050 with no loads traded. There was no interest in doing any business in barrels. There was an unfilled bid a little below the market in blocks. Butter price slipped 0.50 cents ending at $1.7925 with 2 loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk price gained a penny ending at $1.24. Dry whey declined 2 cents settling at 68.25 cents with one load traded. The weakness of blocks and dry whey turned Class III futures lower with contracts steady to down 27 cents with the greatest loss in May. Class IV futures are have not yet traded. Butter futures are unchanged to 0.12 cent lower. Dry whey futures are 2.67 cents lower to 0.20 cent higher. USDA will release the March Milk Production report Wednesday afternoon. I estimate milk production to be up 2.1% from March 2020 and cow numbers to be up 2,000 head from the previous month.


March Milk Production up 2.0 Percent, Jan- March Up 1.0 Percent

March Milk Production up 2.0 Percent  Milk production in the 24 major States during March totaled 18.8 billion pounds, up 2.0 percent from M...