Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - July Fluid Milk Sales Increase 0.2%

GENERAL OVERVIEW:

Class III futures closed the week lower, with Class IV futures mixed. Class III futures closed the week at new contract lows following the pattern of the past three weeks. July fluid milk sales increased 0.2 percent from a year ago.

MILK:

Class III futures remained bearish this week following the pattern of the previous two weeks. New contract lows were made nearly every day as support from cheese was nowhere to be found. This is very counter-seasonal, but there is no indication of this changing anytime soon. Class IV futures remain somewhat positive, supported by continued strength in nonfat dry milk. The price spread between October Class III and Class IV contracts is now over $4.00. Packaged fluid milk sales in July were 0.2 percent above a year ago. Whole milk sales increased 5.5 percent; flavored whole milk increased 23.5 percent; reduced fat increased 1.7 percent; low fat decreased 5.4 percent; fat-free skim milk decreased 25.1 percent; flavored fat-reduced milk decreased 17.4 percent; buttermilk increased 1.5 percent, while other fluid milk product sales decreased 2.0 percent. Organic whole milk sales increased 3.5 percent; organic flavored whole milk increased 16.1 percent; organic reduced-fat milk decreased 9.6 percent; organic low-fat milk fell 25.9 percent; organic fat-free milk decreased 3.0 percent; organic flavored fat-reduced milk increased 15.7 percent, while other organic fluid milk product sales fell 99.1 percent.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:

3 Month:	$15.89
6 Month:	$16.17
9 Month:	$16.50
12 Month:	$16.75

CHEESE:

For the week, blocks fell 11.00 cent with 30 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.4120. Barrels declined 1.00 cent with one load traded. The weekly average price is $1.4475. Dry whey increased 2.00 cents with 3 loads traded. The weekly average price is 76.75 cents. The block cheese price fell to the lowest level since Jan. 22.

BUTTER:

For the week, butter remained steady with 63 loads traded. The weekly average price is $1.3590. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased by 11.00 cents, with 30 loads traded. The weekly average price is $2.0420. The nonfat dry milk price moved to the highest level since June 4.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

December corn closed down 3.00 cents per bushel at $5.2750, November soybeans closed down 16.25 cents at $13.0350, and December soybean meal closed down $12.70 per ton at $358.60. December Chicago wheat closed down 12.75 cents at $7.1425. December live cattle closed up $0.38 at $216.63. October crude oil is down $2.47 per barrel at $99.44. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 95 points at 51,683, with the NASDAQ up 104 points at 26,523.

Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Block Cheese Price Plummets

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:

CORN:	3 Lower
SOYBEANS:	16 Lower
SOYBEAN MEAL:	$14.20 Lower
LIVE CATTLE:	$0.20 Higher
DOW JONES:	156 Points Lower
NASDAQ:	7 Points Lower
CRUDE OIL:	$1.81 Lower

MIDDAY MARKET UPDATE:

The block cheese price fell 7.25 cents to $1.3500 with 13 loads traded. This is the lowest price since January 22nd. The barrel cheese price remained unchanged at $1.4525, with no loads traded. The dry whey price increased 0.75 cent to close at 78.00 cents with no loads traded. Class III futures are steady to 23 cents lower. The butter price increased 2.50 cents to close at $1.3700 with 18 loads traded. There were 6 unfilled bids and 14 uncovered offers remaining at the close of spot trading. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased 3.00 cents to close at $2.08 with 18 loads traded. Trading activity is seen only in the September and October contracts, posting a gain of 9 cents in each. Butter futures are 0.45 cent higher to 1.50 cents lower. Dry whey futures are 007 -- 1.52 cents higher. Cheese futures are 0.90 -- 2.40 cents lower. Nonfat dry milk futures are 0.67 cent lower to 1.25 cents higher.

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Choppy Dairy Trading Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:	Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures:	Mixed
Butter Futures:	Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures:	Mixed
Soybean Futures:	9 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures:	$5 to $6 Lower
Wheat Futures:	Steady to 1 Higher

MILK:

The news each day seems like a broken record. Fundamentals remain little changed, and underlying cash price movement remains choppy. I have written numerous times that milk production is improving seasonally as cow comfort improves. This is expected to continue. The hope is that demand increases along with it, and more so, that supplies may tighten and prices rise. That may be a tall order in the current market environment. For the most part, hot weather is behind and will not be a factor in milk output. The bigger factor will be the low milk prices and lower calf and cattle prices.

CHEESE:

It is difficult to say whether cheese prices have found a bottom. The trend is down, and as long as cheese is readily available, buyers will remain unaggressive.

BUTTER:

Butter shares similar fundamentals as cheese. It is uncertain where price support will be. It is difficult to know whether Fall and holiday demand will increase sufficiently to utilize the volume of butter available to the market. Churn activity in some locations has increased, with plants operating six days per week. The supply remains sufficient for demand.