Thursday, February 8, 2024

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Caution Ahead of Cash Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 4 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Lower
Wheat Futures: 7 to 10 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures are floundering with traders uneasy about price strength. Further gains will need to be seen in underlying cash before milk futures will push higher. We have been seeing some of the effects of cheese orders ahead of the Super Bowl being filled. Retail demand is reported to be slowing somewhat. There is no evidence of milk production slowing. Current milk production is below a year ago, but not by very much, and the weather is keeping production steady. USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report this morning, providing their estimates of milk production, milk prices, and dairy product prices for this year.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have increased but remain far below what they were six months ago. Last year, prices fell throughout the first half of the year. So far, we have seen prices increase but the increase has been slow. Fundamentals do not indicate a tight market at present. Regular cheese demand after the Super Bowl may keep prices choppy with limited upside.

BUTTER:

Price showed support near the current level but much higher prices may be difficult to develop in the near term. Buyers and sellers may be comfortable doing business at the current price level. Some plants are running full schedules while others are selling some cream rather than churning it to avoid building inventory.




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