Tuesday, December 6, 2022

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Find Little Direction

OPENING CALLS:
Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:
Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 10 to 14 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Traders seem uncertain what to do after spot markets traded Monday. At least the block/barrel spread is moving closer together, but that does not provide any long-term direction. With time of year and the current level of milk production, upside price potential may be limited. Milk production continues to slowly improve overall with many plants operating near capacity. Fluid demand is steady with cheese production increasing. Some input prices are declining, reducing the cost of production slightly. This will keep milk production strong as there is hope for the further reduction of input costs and farmers will push production to improve income. This may keep milk prices in a range for a while.

CHEESE:

The recent decline of blocks sets the stage for further weakness as we move through the rest of the year. Much of the holiday demand has been met. Fill-in orders will continue to be placed, which may require buyers to come to the spot market aggressively to pick up supply. That is likely what took place Monday with the increase of barrels.

BUTTER:

Buyers and sellers are comfortable at the current price level with price generally remaining in a range over the past month. Supply and demand seem to be balanced for the time being. Holiday orders have been filled and shipped, leaving churns supplying regular demand and rebuilding inventory. With inventory significantly below a year ago, it will take some time to rebuild stocks to a comfortable level. Cash is expected to remain choppy.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

MILK: Traders were uncertain as to how to interpret the moving of spot prices today. Pressure was put on Class III futures after spo...