Thursday, November 12, 2026

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cheese Rally Gains Momentum

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 15 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 0 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $0.10 to $0.40 Lower
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

Class III futures are trading 3 lower to 11 higher Thursday morning. Milk prices are expected to be higher than previous estimates published by the USDA. That being said, the ending stocks totals are concerning with the increase in expected milk production. On the positive side, demand has grown substantially, so any falter in milk production could cause big waves in a heavy-demand market. Class III futures are expected to take cheese futures' lead today, as the recent strength in milk has been directly tied to cheese's strength.

CHEESE:

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning, cheese futures are 0.9 cents higher on the December contract. After last week's bearish spot market trade for cheese, it is somewhat surprising at the rate Cheddar Cheese Blocks have rallied in the first half of this week. There was a slight pullback in the Barrel price, bringing the current spread between barrels and blocks to only 0.50 cents now, but cheese has gained 11.25 cents since Friday. Demand is most likely driven by holiday buying.

BUTTER:

Butter has not yet been traded Thursday morning. Cream supplies have varied across the country this week. Some areas are a bit tighter than in previous weeks; however, the supply is sufficient. Some unseasonably warm weather in the East puts a little strain on milk production, but the forecast appears to cool down for now. Butter churns are running at full speed, and both 80% and 82% butterfat butter have adequate supply.




More cows, more milk, tighter margins ahead

Rapid herd expansion is pushing U.S. milk production higher, increasing the risk that supply growth outpaces demand and pressures producer m...