Friday, August 29, 2025

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Find Little Price Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $0.50 to $1.00 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

There has been little change in fundamentals in the dairy industry. Milk futures may continue to chop around at the current levels with little solid direction. Milk futures being unable to trend higher during this time of year is unusual. Demand seasonally increases, resulting in increased buying interest on the spot market. So far, the buying interest has not been aggressive, with sellers continuing to offer supplies to the market. Higher milk production than last year is keeping the market supplied with milk. USDA will release the July Agricultural Prices report this afternoon, providing the average prices used in the income over feed calculation for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. The average soybean meal price is not in the report and will not be released until Tuesday.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may have limited upside potential as supply and demand seem to be balanced. Price increases generate selling interest as plants want to move supplies rather than build inventory. Lower prices find buying interest as buyers look ahead to holiday demand. Buyers see no need to chase the market higher, and sellers see no need to hold supplies.

BUTTER:

The bounce in the butter price on Thursday was the interest of buyers to purchase butter due to the low price, and not because the market has bottomed and the price will trend higher. It may be difficult for the price to see much upside potential considering the current fundamentals. Cream supply is available, and churning is active. The supply of butter is sufficient to meet demand and reduce the volume needed to be supplemented from inventory.




Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Find Little Price Direction

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: Mixed Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed B...