Thursday, April 3, 2025

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Lower Due to Outside Market Pressure

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 10 to 15 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Butter Futures: 1 to 3 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 6 to 9 lower
Soybean Futures: 16 to 20 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 10 to 13 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures did not respond positively to the increase in spot cheese prices over the past two days as traders anticipate limited upside potential. The announcement of the level of tariffs being implemented was not liked by traders, with selling pressure on futures overnight. The sharp decline in the outside markets will influence trading Thursday. The dairy markets have already factored in much of the potential impact from tariffs. This should result in some price stability, but the initial reaction is negative. If spot prices increase, it could reduce the bearish attitude but may not provide much support to futures.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have increased over the past two days, and it is possible the price could settle back as sellers may become more aggressive. The pattern over the past few months has been that price increases have been short-lived, generally lasting 2-3 days. This pattern is expected to remain as the market balances supply and demand.

BUTTER:

The butter price is not expected to move outside of the sideways trading range anytime soon. Churning is active with plants running on full schedules. There is sufficient supply to meet the current demand, with buyers purchasing ahead for later demand. The cream supply is abundant, but more demand may be seen from ice cream and other Class II products.



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