Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Trading Activity Ahead of Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $1 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Higher

MILK:

Will it be another dismal day? The market is bearish with sellers of butter and cheese continuing to offer supply to the spot market. The intent is to limit inventory at the plant level this early in the year. Milk production increases during the spring flush resulting in inventory increasing more rapidly. Buyers step in to purchase supply for later demand as prices are generally lower during that time. The selling and price weakness is taking place much earlier this year. Hopefully, that could mean prices may trend higher earlier. Demand will need to improve to keep up with the increase in milk production and increase buyer's interest in purchasing for later demand. The February Milk Production report will be released on Friday. It will be interesting to see the level of milk production per cow.

CHEESE:

There seems to be no support for cheese prices. Cheese inventories are lower than a year ago, but buyers are not concerned over supply. Cheese production has been steady. Demand is being met without difficulty and ongoing demand is uncertain. The impact of tariffs is uncertain, but the U.S. cheese price is currently 68.50 cents below the price of cheese trade during Tuesday's Global Dairy Trade auction. This should keep international demand strong.

BUTTER:

Butter production remains strong with plentiful supplies of butter available to the market. Plants continue to process the heavy supplies of cream that are available. Inventory is increasing with more butter production than demand. Buyers purchase supply and freeze it for later demand on price weakness. This may limit upside price potential later in the year as supply will be readily available for the seasonal increase in demand.





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