Monday, March 24, 2025

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Production Report Keeps Pressure on the Market

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Lower

MILK:

Milk production in February was higher than expected when the adjustment was made for Feb. 29, also known as Leap Day. The increase of 15,000 head of cows provided an increase in milk production. Depending on milk production per cow moving through spring flush, milk production may remain higher than a year ago. The lower milk prices may not have a significant impact on milk output in the near term as it is hoped that demand will increase, and low milk prices will be short-lived. Buyers in the cash market are uncertain about the impact tariffs will have on international demand. They see no need to be aggressive with purchases and have been able to meet demand and increase ownership for later demand without having to chase the market.

CHEESE:

The barrel cheese price fell to the lowest level since April 11, 2024, falling 14 cents last week. There is little fundamental support for higher prices in the foreseeable future. Spot milk is available at mostly discounted prices with a greater discount likely as spring flush progresses. Cheese buyers need to see evidence of increasing demand before they increase purchases for later demand.

BUTTER:

Retail demand for butter has improved, but it may not be sufficient to support higher prices. Churning is active, providing sufficient supply for current demand and building inventory. The February Cold Storage report will be released on Tuesday, showing how much inventory there is compared to a year ago. Price is expected to have limited upside potential.





Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Uncertain Over Further Cash Strength

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed ...