Monday, October 14, 2024

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Wait for Cash Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 5 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

Trading is not expected to be very active ahead of spot trading. Traders will be uncertain about the strength or weakness of the underlying cash. Butter and cheese prices did not find support last week, leaving traders uncertain. Buyers have increased their ownership of supply without having to chase the market higher. Milk production is holding and should begin to improve over the next few weeks. Milk supplies are sufficient for bottling and manufacturing, eliminating any concern over supply tightness. Component values are higher, improving cheese yields and increasing available cream supplies.

CHEESE:

It is uncertain whether cheese prices have found support. Last week's action did not provide confidence that the bottom has been reached. Cheese inventory is lower than a year ago, but strong production and current demand have not resulted in any shortage or concern of a shortage. Buyers remain complacent and are purchasing as needed rather than purchasing ahead.

BUTTER:

Retail butter demand is improving, but supply is sufficient. Churns are running on full schedules and turning away spot cream offers due to the inability to increase processing capacity. This is not usual for this time of year. Buyers are establishing contracts for the first quarter of 2025 at lower prices which may reduce price potential early next year.




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