Monday, April 22, 2024

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures to Continue Higher

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 8 to 15 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 5 to 7 Higher

MILK:

The strength of milk futures on Friday looks to continue today. The June Class III contract closed at the highest level since February 28 with the market poised to move to the high of February 26. The April contract is priced and will move very little before the announced Federal Order prices. If prices hold, there will be a large price increase from April to May helping farm income. USDA will release the March Milk production report this afternoon. It is expected to show a decrease in milk production from a year ago. I estimate milk production to be down 1%. Cow numbers could be anywhere and difficult to predict. I estimate cow numbers to be down 4,000 head from February.

CHEESE:

The jump in cheese prices on Friday could trigger further buying interest today. The strength of prices may increase the desire of buyers to purchase cheese before prices move much higher. There may be a limit due to the current availability of cheese, but higher prices could unfold as buyers become more aggressive.

BUTTER:

The butter price may continue in the sideways range it is in. Churning is active allowing for demand to be met and inventory to increase. Traders anticipated higher prices as the year progresses based on current futures contracts.




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