Wednesday, December 13, 2023

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Exports Remain Sluggish

MILK

Milk futures closed mostly lower for both classes of milk. The December and January Class III contracts closed slightly higher while nearby Class IV contracts took a hit. Underlying cash prices continued to chop around with little upside potential. Dairy exports in October did not do well overall. Exports on a milk solids equivalent basis declined 6.6% in October, the ninth consecutive year-over-year decline. Some products did very well but that was not enough to offset the declines of other products. Slower exports have been an anchor on the potential for dairy product prices. Global inflation and slow economic growth have limited overall demand.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $16.35
6 Month: $17.01
9 Month: $17.47
12 Month: $17.74

CHEESE

Cheese exports in October totaled 35,708 metric tons (mt), down 1,507 mt or 4% from a year ago. Year-to-date exports are down 4.5% compared to the same period last year. Whey exports took a hit totaling 44,922 mt or 14.5% below a year ago. Year-to-date exports are down 21.5%. Whey protein concentrate +80 was very positive in October as well as for the year. Exports in October totaled 6,229 mt, up 6.9% from October 2022 with year-to-date exports up 16.6%. Lactose showed a gain of 20.3%m totaling 41,496 mt with year-to-date exports up 6.6%.

BUTTER

Butterfat exports continue to struggle, posting a decline of 66.5% from a year ago, totaling 2,096 mt. Year-to-date exports are down 47.7%. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports totaled 64,511 mt, down 11.2% from a year ago with year-to-date exports down 3.1%. Whole milk powder exports totaled 2,151 mt, up 20.8% over October 2022 with year-to-date exports running 29.9% below the same period last year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

March corn closed down 5.75 cents per bushel at $4.7950, January soybeans closed down 16.25 cents at $13.0750 and January soybean meal closed down $8.10 per ton at $402.20. March Chicago wheat closed down 20.25 cents at $6.0525. February live cattle closed down $1.38 at $167.23. January crude oil is up $0.86 per barrel at $69.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 512 points at 37,090 with the NASDAQ is up 201 points at 14,734.




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