MILK
Class III milk futures did not get much support from higher barrel cheese and dry whey prices. Traders remain very cautious and are not ready to get on the bandwagon for higher prices. So far, prices have had limited upside potential and traders have become a bit cautious about buying into any underlying cash price strength.
I have said this several times before, but the market will need to prove itself before traders get excited about sustained higher prices. One reason is the slow export pace. The volume of exports in August was down 10.8% from August 2022.
There were positive exports for NDM/SMP and whey protein concentrate 80+, but other categories did not fare very well. The slower pace of exports remains somewhat of an anchor on domestic prices to some extent. The glaring aberration is butter with an extremely high domestic price even though exports are extremely slow. There had been hope for a turn in exports through the second half of the year but that may be questioned now.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES
| 3 Month: | $17.26 |
| 6 Month: | $17.66 |
| 9 Month: | $17.91 |
| 12 Month: | $18.08 |
CHEESE
At least cheese prices did not decline today, but steady to higher prices did not trigger aggressive buying interest. Cheese exports in August totaled 37,240 metric tons (mt), a decline of 2.9% from August 2022. Year-to-date exports are 5.6% lower than in the same period last year. Whey exports continued to take a hit totaling 40,692 mt, down 31.4% from a year ago and down 22.0% on a year-over-year basis. However, whey protein concentrate 80+ jumped 34.0% from a year ago totaling 1,676 mt.
BUTTER
Butterfat exports were the huge lagger with exports totaling 2,841 mt, down 58.0% from August 2022. Year-to-date exports are down 45.4%. NDM/SMP exports did well, growing 4.2% over a year ago at 68,289 mt. Year-to-date exports are now only 0.1% below the same period last year. Whole milk powder exports fell 39.7% below a year ago, totaling 2,513 mt with year-to-date exports down 35.4%.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY
December corn closed down 2.75 cents per bushel at $4.8550, November soybeans closed up 7.25 cents at $12.7150 and December soybean meal closed up $2.90 per ton at $377.50. December Chicago wheat closed down 14.25 cents at $5.5850. December live cattle closed down $0.35 at $185.00. November crude oil is down $0.45 per barrel at $85.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 135 points at 33,739 with the NASDAQ up 79 points at 13,563.
