Wednesday, October 11, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Trading Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

Milk seems to be balanced in the fact that there is sufficient supply for demand without overwhelming the market. Spot milk is available at a premium over class. Without a significant increase in demand, upside price potential may be limited in Class III. Class IV prices could be in trouble if butter has reached a threshold and trends lower. In general, feed supplies are sufficient. Milk futures will be mixed until direction is seen from spot trading activity. Corn harvest progress is running at 34% complete with soybean harvest at 43% complete. This compares with corn harvest last year at 29% complete and soybean harvest at 41% complete.

CHEESE:

Cheese exports in August were running below a year ago but not by a very large percentage. Domestic demand is termed as steady. This should be the time of year during which demand for cheese should improve from packagers and recutters as they prepare for the holidays. Demand for pizza cheese has increased significantly while other demand has remained good.

BUTTER:

There is a lot of discussion over whether price has reached a threshold or whether the recent weakness is just temporary. Price is extremely high compared to world price, yet domestic demand has been strong. Exports have been very slow compared to a year ago. The market may be reflecting a significant decrease in inventory in September. We will not know until the cold storage report is released in about two weeks.




Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - September Fluid Milk Sales Decline 1.6%

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