Monday, October 2, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Will Proceed With Caution

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 5 to 7 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Higher

MILK:

The consideration for the day is whether cheese prices have found a level of buyer interest. Friday provided some hope that this might be true as barrel cheese price increased. However, with sufficient milk supply for both bottling and manufacturing keeping plants busy, there is a desire for plants to move supply to the market rather than inventory. It is possible holiday buying may increase this month, which could provide support to the market. At the same time, demand needs to improve more than it is. A reprieve from the current lower prices certainly would be welcomed. The October contracts are nearly half price with the window of volatility closing. The decline of Class III will be difficult while the gain of Class IV will be welcomed with the current spread between the two classes of nearly $4.00.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices found some stability Friday, but it was not enough to trigger strong buyer interest. The market will need to prove itself before traders get more excited. Cheese prices on the World market have been stable to struggling and exports have been slower. The Global Dairy Trade action tomorrow hopefully will show some price strength.

BUTTER:

The decline of butter Friday after the phenomenal increase could indicate price has reached a top. However, it is too early to tell, and it will be up to demand. The weakness may move buyers to the sideline as they wait to see how aggressive sellers will be. A price void may have developed under the market, but we certainly hope that is not the case. It will be an interesting week




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