Friday, September 29, 2023

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Higher Milk Price and Lower Feed Prices to Reduce DMC Payment

MILK

It certainly has not been a good week for Class III milk futures but at least some contracts closed higher Friday. That is a small consolation giving the discount of October futures compared to September. Tuesday will be the last day to trade September futures and options with the Federal Order class prices announced on Wednesday.

USDA released the August Agricultural Price report today with an average corn price for the month at $5.73. This was a decline of $0.49 from July and down from $7.24 a year ago. The premium/supreme hay price declined by $6 per ton to $282. This compares to a price of $343 per ton a year earlier.

The All-milk price was $19.70, up $2.30 from July, but down $4.40 from a year ago. The soybean meal price has not yet been released by the FSA which is what is needed to determine the income over feed price for the Dairy Margin Coverage program. We will need to wait until the price is released.

Another price to note is the average alfalfa hay price at $230 per ton, down $14 from July and down $46 from August 2022. The average price for soybean was $14.10, down $0.60 per bushel from July and down $1.20 per bushel from a year ago.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $17.48
6 Month: $17.67
9 Month: $17.86
12 Month: $18.01

CHEESE

Blocks declined 6 cents for the week with just two loads traded. Barrels declined 12 cents with 30 loads traded. Dry whey was the big surprise, not from price movement but from the volume of loads traded. Price declined 1.50 cents with 54 loads traded.

Whether sellers' aggressiveness has subsided for now or will resume next week is anyone's guess. We know the market cannot go down forever without at least a price correction. Hopefully, the low price and the market moving into October will generate greater buying interest.

BUTTER

Butter jumped 30 cents for the week with seven loads traded. Grade A nonfat dry milk increased by 1.50 cents with nine loads traded. The weak butter price today may signal the top is in and the price may decline. Buyers may step back now that they see weakness. Prices generally fall faster than they increase, but we certainly hope this will not be the case.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 11.75 cents per bushel at $4.7675, November soybeans closed down 25.50 cents at $12.75 and December soybean meal closed down $10.30 per ton at $381.20. December Chicago wheat closed down 37.25 cents at $5.4150. December live cattle closed down $2.50 at $187.93. November crude oil is down $0.93 per barrel at $90.78. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 159 points at 33.508 while the NASDAQ is up 18 points at 13,219.




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