Monday, October 2, 2023

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Milk prices Mixed Following Outside Market Price Shifts

MILK

Milk prices were mixed at the end of the session Monday with September through November contracts able to highlight the positive side of the market with October Class III milk futures leading the complex higher with a 13 cent per cwt gain. This moved October futures back above $17 per cwt for the time being. The expectation that late-year support may start with a fourth-quarter rally didn't totally disappoint Monday but given the slow and unstable support seen through the entire complex, there are starting to be some looming questions of just how much follow-through momentum the overall dairy market may have ahead of the traditional holiday season. Class IV futures were also lightly traded, able to carve out a 20-cent gain in both October and November contracts while the rest of the complex remained unchanged and generally quietly traded. The fact that there was no government shutdown once markets opened Monday seemed to add a bit of underlying support to the entire financial markets, although there is still significant uncertainty and financial market pressure developing due to lack of long-term government funding resolutions and growing volatility in outside markets.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $17.54
6 Month: $17.68
9 Month: $17.87
12 Month: $18.01

CHEESE

Cheddar cheese prices closed steady to higher on the cash exchange market Monday with Block cheese prices unchanged at $1.72 per pound, with the most overall activity levels of the day as 12 loads of block cheese sold. Barrel cheese prices bounced 6.25 per pound higher, settling at $1.5425 per pound, with nine loads exchanging hands and another six bids going unfilled. The block-to-barrel price spread narrowed moderately to 17.75 cents per pound, which could spark some additional movement in trade activity and price shifts through the upcoming days.

BUTTER

Cash butter prices bounced 4 cents per pound higher at $3.34 per pound Monday as limited overall activity developed through the CME cash dairy exchange, at least in the butter complex. No trades of butter sold on the exchange following one uncovered bid, while offers were unavailable following the weekend break. The fourth quarter of the year traditionally promises some additional hope for firming price levels due to overall consumer demand growth, but given the growing uncertainty in outside markets, it is uncertain if the upcoming months will follow typical end-of-year pricing patterns.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 12 cents per bushel at $4.8875, November soybeans closed up 2 cents at $12.77 and December soybean meal closed down $6.90 per ton at $374.30. December Chicago wheat closed up 23.25 cents at $5.6475. December live cattle closed up $0.425 at $188.35. November crude oil is down $2.15 per barrel at $88.64. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 74 points at 33.433 with the NASDAQ is up 88 points at 13,307.




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