Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Remain Cautious About Price Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 7 to 9 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Milk futures showed strength in nearby months Monday, but traders seemed a bit hesitant to buy contracts aggressively. Maybe spot cheese has found support, but traders thought this several times only to find prices fall back again. Butter being at a record-high leaves one wondering just how much more upside is possible. Class IV futures in October moved to $21.00 with November up to $20.50, being supported by butter price. Class III futures gained in nearby months, but far short of what would have been expected under general circumstances. The average soybean meal price for August was $438.80, a decline of $4.35 per ton from July. This put income-over-feed for the month at $6.46, up $2.94 from July. This provides a payment of $3.04 for those who choose the $9.50 level for the Dairy Margin Coverage program and who have not met the 5-million-pound cap. The Global Dairy Tade auction will take place Tuesday.

CHEESE:

There is a possibility cheese prices have finally found a bottom again. Buyers may become more aggressive now that we are in October and holidays are approaching. Strong demand for pizza cheeses has not been enough to support prices, but holiday demand should provide support for all types of cheese.

BUTTER:

Another record high Monday showed the market did not have a void under it, at least not yet. Buyers still need product and will purchase it aggressively. Butter price is much higher than the World price, which makes this strength very interesting.




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