Monday, April 10, 2023

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Dairy Exports Slow Down

MILK

Class III milk futures posted reluctant losses again today. The weakness of barrel cheese far outweighed the increase of blocks, yet trading activity was light and price declines limited. The April contract seems to be beginning to flatline, which is a bit early given the volatility of the past month and the weakness seen over the past two weeks. Trading activity was light in relation to the volume over the past few weeks. Dairy exports during the month of February were higher than a year ago but not with the same strength. Exports were up 0.8% on a milk solids basis. The value of exports declined for the first time in two years. The decline was due to lower prices and not so much a lower volume of exports. However, some categories did show lower exports as well. USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report tomorrow which will show their estimates for milk production, milk prices and dairy product prices for this year and an initial look at next year. Corn planting is underway with 3% of the nation's corn crop planted compared to 2% a year ago and the five-year average of 2%.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $18.14
6 Month: $18.58
9 Month: $18.85
12 Month: $18.83

CHEESE

February cheese exports totaled 32,871 metric tons, down 0.2% from February 2022. Year-over-year exports are up 7.2% from the same period last year. Whey exports totaled 39,821 metric tons, down 8.8% from a year ago. Year to date exports are 0.5% above the same period a year ago. Lactose exports totaled 38,099 metric tons, up 32.4% from a year ago and up 31.1% for the first two months of this year.

BUTTER

Butterfat exports took a hit in February with a total of 3,763 metric tons, down 44.3% from a year ago. Year-to-date exports were 31.1% lower than the same period last year. Whole milk powder exports totaled 1,940 metric tons, down 40.7% below a year ago. Year-to-date export are 41.9% lower than the same period last year. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports totaled 63,042 metric tons, down 0.5% from February 2022, but up 6.9% for the first two months of this year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

May corn gained 10.50 cents closing at $6.54. May soybeans declined 5.25 cents ending at $14.8725 with May soybean meal down $3.60 per ton closing at $450.70. May wheat gained 3 cents closing at $6.7850. April live cattle gained $0.30 closing at $171.37. May crude oil declined $0.96 closing at $79.74 per barrel. The Dow increased 101 points closing at 33,587 while the Nasdaq slipped 4 points closing at 12,084.




Friday Midday Dairy Market Summary - Butter and Cheese Prices Bounce

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