Monday, February 6, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Spot Prices May Retrace

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures:

Mixed

Class IV Milk Futures:

Mixed

Butter Futures:

Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Lower
Soybean Futures: 5 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Lower
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Class III milk futures tried to push higher during the second half of the week but did not quite have the desired follow-through. Class IV futures fared better, posting higher prices. Dry whey and nonfat dry milk prices came alive last week, posting nice gains as end users seemed to think prices may be near or have reached a bottom. The market will need to prove itself before market sentiment may change. There is again a strong chance prices could settle back once the current buying interest is satisfied. USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report this week, providing their estimates on average milk production, milk prices, and product prices for the year.

CHEESE:

There was strong cheese output in December according to the Dairy Products report released Friday. This may result in inventory building more rapidly than usual if the pattern continues early this year. If so, prices may have limited upside potential for the near term. The strength or weakness of dry whey may be the driver of the market.

BUTTER:

Price showed strong cash trading interest last week with 43 loads traded and price was still able to gain 10.25 cents for the week. Traders will be cautious over this recent price rally being able to hold. Butter production was strong in December, outpacing December 2021 by 3.9% and increasing 9.4% from November as cream supply is plentiful. Inventory is building as current production exceeds demand. Price may retrace somewhat early this week.



Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - August Butter Production 14.5% Above Year Ago Levels

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