Monday, September 12, 2022

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Anticipate Further Strength

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $4 Higher
Wheat Futures: 3 to 5 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures posted a strong week last week with hopes strength would continue again this week. The buying interest that had developed in both cheese and butter last week should provide some follow through. However, there remains caution over how much strength there will be. Price increases have been limited as prices have fallen back after short periods of gain. Buyers have been able to purchase supply without having to be aggressive on the spot market. Milk production is running at the lows for the year with expectations production should begin to improve soon. However, production growth may be limited due to the high cost of production. USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand report Monday, which will provide their estimates on milk production, milk prices and product prices for this year and next year. The report may have a greater impact in the direction of grain prices.

CHEESE:

Buyer interest for cheese should increase as orders are being placed and buyers prepare for the upcoming holidays. There have been reports of some increased cheese demand, especially for pizza cheeses with football season underway. However, cheese exports have slowed.

BUTTER:

There seems to be no ceiling to the price of butter. More record highs could be in the cards this week as buyers look ahead to holiday demand. Butter inventory is significantly below a year ago and has not been able to catch up. At the current pace of production and demand, inventory could end the year substantially lower than last year, which would keep price supported.




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