Thursday, July 7, 2022

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures May Bounce

OPENING CALLS:
Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:
Corn Futures: 8 to 12 Higher
Soybean Futures: 35 to 40 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $5 to $8 Higher
Wheat Futures: 30 to 35 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures falling back to the lowest level since February has been quite a shock to the dairy complex. However, the weakness of underlying cheese prices has been the driving factor. As cheese prices continued to weaken, the attitude of traders turned more bearish. Even stable underlying cash prices did nothing to support milk futures. Milk futures might see a rebound if underlying cash can stabilize. There have been some reports of slowing demand from both retail and the food service industry but nothing that seems to be widespread. Milk production in the South has been declining due to hot weather while many other areas continue to see stable production as the weather has not been as hot. Dryer weather has been impacting forage production in some areas but the forage that has been harvested is of good quality.

CHEESE:

The stability of cheese yesterday may not be viewed as positive yet as the market will need to prove itself before traders might buy back into futures. It may not be a matter of prices being attractive to buyers, but a matter of buyers already having purchased some supply ahead of time leaving them uncertain as to the level of demand that will be seen as the year progresses.

BUTTER:

Price is expected to hold in the range between $2.90 and $3.00 for a time. Demand is good and stocks are lower than a year ago. Cash trading activity on the spot market has been brisk so far this week as buyers have been aggressive to increase ownership for later demand.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

MILK: Traders were uncertain as to how to interpret the moving of spot prices today. Pressure was put on Class III futures after spo...