Tuesday, May 10, 2022

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Trade Indicates Further Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Lower

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 5 to 8 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 10 to 12 Higher

MILK:

Later Class III milk contracts have fallen below the trading range they have been in for a while. Closer contracts remain in the range but are at the bottom end of it. Class IV futures have been trending lower. There are some areas seeing strong milk production as spring flush continues with plants running full. Other areas see higher milk output with plants having sufficient room to handle the milk and in some cases are purchasing spot milk at a discount to process and fill orders. Milk production is running below a year ago, but processing facilities continue to struggle with the lack of employees and difficulties in moving product due to the lack of trucks and truckers. It is probably a good thing milk production is running lower than a year ago or the problems would be much worse. Of course, it is good production is lower as milk prices are higher. Futures trading looks to remain lower prior to spot trading.

CHEESE:

Buyers have not yet felt the need to step up more aggressively and purchase for summer demand or even longer-term demand. Price weakness leaves buyers sidelined to some extent as they wait for lower prices. Current demand is reported to be good, keeping cheese inventory from growing.

BUTTER:

Even though butter exports are strong and food service demand good, price is not trending higher. Churning is active with cream supply ample for all areas of demand. Retail butter sales have slowed slightly, keeping the market in check. Price is at the low end of the recent range with further weakness likely.




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