Thursday, May 14, 2026

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Market Best Described as Rangebound

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 12 to 18 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to 5 Lower
Wheat Futures: 2 to 3 Higher

MILK:

There is little expectation of milk futures moving higher anytime soon. The choppy nature of the spot prices leaves traders with no specific price direction other than sideways. This keeps traders scalping the market for a small profit if realized, limiting long-term market participation. Milk output is expected to remain strong as cows respond to good weather and cow numbers increase. Expansions continue to take place, increasing cow numbers and adding to the nation's dairy herd. Increasing milk production will satisfy increased demand, eliminating concerns over supply. Nonfat dry milk will be the market to watch as the recent price activity suggests the market may have reached a plateau. If price begins to weaken, there may be a significant amount of premium eliminated from Class IV futures.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices remain in a tight range with no reason to break out of that pattern. Cheese production is higher due to increased milk production. More milk will be available for manufacturing as schools close for the summer. This may limit the upside price potential.

BUTTER:

Strong butter output with churns operating seven days per week keeps the maket well-supplied with product. Plants are not interested in building inventory and are moving supplies to the spot market as quickly as possible.




Dairy herd growth moderates

U.S. dairy herds continue to expand, though growth has moderated from last year. Through the first quarter of 2026, the national dairy herd ...