GENERAL OVERVIEW:
Milk futures came under pressure on Monday despite relative stability in the spot market. Trading volume was large in January and February futures, with over 1,000 contracts traded in each. Dairy exports in September declined 2% on a milk solids equivalent basis.
MILK:
Class III milk showed significant volatility on Monday, with contracts showing large price movements through May. The January contract showed the greatest swing of 43 cents from high to low. Very limited trading activity took place in Class IV futures. Dairy exports in September showed a decline of 2% on a milk solids equivalent basis. However, butter and cheese exports continued to show impressive growth. Year-to-date exports of dairy products remained 1.7% above the same period in 2024. However, the strong gains in butter and cheese exports compared to a year ago have had little impact on domestic prices as seen on the daily spot market. It will take a contraction in milk production and/or an increase in demand to change this anytime soon.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES:
| 3 Month: | $15.49 |
| 6 Month: | $15.86 |
| 9 Month: | $16.37 |
| 12 Month: | $16.72 |
CHEESE:
September exports of cheese increased 34.5%, totaling 52,854 metric tons over last year. Year-to-date exports are 17.2% above the same period a year ago. Lactose exports totaled 37,455 metric tons, down 5.4% from September 2024. Year-to-date exports are up 0.3% compared to the same period a year ago. Whey exports totaled 40,329 metric tons, down 13.3% from a year ago, with year-to-date exports down 3.6% from the previous year. Whey protein concentrate +80 exports totaled 8,098 metric tons, an increase of 9.9% from September 2024. Year-to-date exports are 10.4% higher than a year ago.
BUTTER:
Butterfat exports continue to show phenomenal growth, with September exports up 100.9% above a year ago, totaling 8,817 metric tons. Nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports declined 18.5% from September 2024, totaling 50,491 metric tons. Year-to-date exports are down 13.6%. Whole milk powder exports fell 29.3%, totaling 2,885 metric tons. However, year-to-date exports are 40% above the same period in 2024.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY:
March corn closed down 7.75 cents per bushel at $4.4225, March soybeans closed down 9 cents at $10.6350 and March soybean meal closed down $4.10 per ton at $303.30. March Chicago wheat closed down 6 cents at $5.1300. February live cattle closed down $0.68 at $228.98. February crude oil is up $1.08 per barrel at $57.82. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 249 points at 48,462, with the NASDAQ down 119 points at 23,474.
