Monday, September 22, 2025

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Trade Shows Further Weakness

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 7 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Lower
Soybean Futures: 6 to 8 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 4 to 6 Lower

MILK:

There is little for traders to get excited about to begin the week. There is sufficient milk for demand, leaving plants with sufficient supply for manufacturing and bottling. The milk supply is not going to diminish as milk production has surpassed its seasonal low and will steadily increase over the next months. Demand has not been sufficient to tighten the market, resulting in prices moving counter-seasonally. USDA will release the August Milk Production report this afternoon. I estimate milk production to be 3.1% above a year ago and cow numbers to increase by 4,000 head from July.

CHEESE:

It may be difficult for cheese prices to increase much. If there is an increase, it will not last very long. Manufacturers want to limit inventory growth at the plant level and will continue to offer supply to the spot market even at lower prices. Buyers see no need to be aggressive due to uncertain demand.

BUTTER:

Butter continues to exhibit weakness, and that is not expected to change anytime soon. Buyers have sufficient supply on hand for this time of year and see no need to be aggressive. The sellers continue to move the supply at whatever price they can.




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