Wednesday, August 14, 2024

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Cheese Sellers May Be More Aggressive

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 4 to 8 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 1 Lower
Soybean Futures: 3 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 3 Lower

MILK:

The strong gains in cheese prices supported Class III milk futures, moving most contracts to new highs. Traders may be cautious about the continuation of that strength. Buyers may reach a threshold that may increase the selling interest. Milk production is declining seasonally but is not causing a supply deficit. Spot milk prices are at class to $2.00 above class and are in line with spot prices a year ago. The August contract is mostly priced and will adjust to the weekly AMS prices through the end of the month. Any rise or fall in milk prices will not impact the August price. Milk is moving around the country to fill demand from deficit areas with greater volumes for bottling to supply school accounts.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have had strong gains but further gains may be limited near term. The immediate buying interest may have run its course as orders are filled. This may bring sellers to the market more aggressively as they take advantage of the higher prices. The barrel supply is tighter than blocks with higher demand widening the inverted spread.

BUTTER:

Butter may move above the June 4 high, but buyer interest needs to be more aggressive to accomplish that goal. Buyers and sellers of butter are balancing supply with demand. This has kept the price in a sideways trading range. Increasing butter exports may provide the support the market needs for the price to break out and trend higher.




August Milk Production in the United States down 0.1 Percent

August Milk Production up 0.1 Percent          Milk production in the 24 major States during August totaled 18.1 billion pounds, up 0.1 perc...