Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Uncertainty to Dominate Early Trade

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: MIxed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 8 to 10 Higher

MILK:

It has been a volatile week with some traders licking their wounds after unexpected price swings. The heightened volatility will keep traders cautious Wednesday and uncertain over cheese price movement. Milk production continues to hold or improve as spring flush remains evident. However, some areas seem to be over the peak of spring flush, which is earlier than usual. However, milk production is expected to hold steady and may remain that way longer than usual if the weather is good. There has been at least one forecast indicating hot weather will be more prominent this summer. This would impact milk supply, but that remains to be seen. For now, there is sufficient milk available for bottling manufacturing demand.

CHEESE:

The action during spot trading Tuesday would suggest that a void could have developed under the barrel market. Once the current buying interest is filled, there may be no willing buyers at the high price. However, it is difficult to determine whether blocks or barrels are the true indicator of the strength of the market. A large price divergence of this magnitude is rare.

BUTTER:

Butter price may remain choppy as buyers and sellers take care of business in a balanced market. Manufacturers are focusing on needs for the second half of the year. They are utilizing the current cream supply to keep churning active and build inventory.




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