Friday, April 19, 2024

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Volatility Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 5 to 6 Higher

MILK:

Class III futures closed mostly higher while Class IV futures closed mostly lower on Thursday. Trading activity may be light ahead; cash and price movement mixed. Milk production is slowly improving seasonally although at lower levels than last year. USDA will release the March Milk Production report on Monday which is expected to show milk production remaining below a year ago. The level of demand will be the key to price potential. Buyers of cheese and butter generally become more aggressive in the summer as they look ahead to demand later in the year. Higher food prices may impact overall demand and therefore limit price potential.

CHEESE:

The steady cheese prices of the past few days may indicate buyers and sellers are comfortable at the current price level. Cheese production is good with spot milk available at a discount to class. There is concern over the availability of milk over time if milk prices remain in the range of where they are and the supply of replacements remains tight. Manufacturing capacity will increase over the next few years, but will there be enough milk to fill that capacity?

BUTTER:

Butter price is comfortable in the range of $2.90 to $3.00 for now. Food service demand is a little slower as eating away from home becomes more expensive. Retail demand is steady as consumers eat more at home. Churning is active as cream remains readily available.




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