Thursday, March 21, 2024

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Focus on Lower Milk Production

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 6 to 12 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 4 to 6 Higher
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 5 to 7 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Higher
Wheat Futures: 2 to 3 Higher

MILK:

The February Milk Production report was bullish as far as the decline in milk production, but bearish as far as cow numbers are concerned. It was not bearish due to cow numbers in the country being 89,000 head less than February 2023. It was bearish from the standpoint that cow numbers increased by 10,000 head more than in January. Of course, the level of milk production will have more impact on the market if demand improves and bottlers and manufacturers need more milk to meet that demand. Dairy Market News reports that many cheese plants are nearing production capacity with spot milk being offered as much as $6.00 below class. Most of the spot milk in the country is priced at $3.50 below class to near class price. This may keep milk prices from seeing too much strength in the near term.

CHEESE:

Cheese buyers may not react to the lower milk production in the report yesterday as the milk has already been absorbed into the market. Reduced milk production has not resulted in any tightness of cheese supply. However, inventory may not be much higher than a year ago. This would indicate there is a balance of supply and demand.

BUTTER:

Price may have limited upside potential in the near term as much of the demand for Easter has been filled. Price is not expected to fall as there seems to be solid support in the market. The current production level has been keeping up with demand and increasing inventory. However, inventory may be below a year ago, which will be seen on the Cold Storage report Monday.




Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Limited Trade Activity Expected

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Lower Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed ...