Thursday, February 1, 2024

Thursday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Uncertain of Cash Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $4 Lower
Wheat Futures: 6 to 8 Lower

MILK:

Milk futures have stalled for the past two days as underlying cash has not supported a continued higher trend. Spot prices have not been doing much, turning choppy again. This keeps traders more on the defensive as they think upside potential may be limited. Milk production is below a year ago but continues to hold well. The weather has been and will be good for cow comfort as the forecasts call for continued mild temperatures. Grain prices are not seeing much volatility with the average corn price for December 2023 on the Agricultural Prices report showing an increase of $0.14 from November. The average corn price is lower for January which may impact milk production as there is usually a correlation of price.

CHEESE:

The block cheese price increased during spot trading on Wednesday but was not able to hold the gain. This was negative for the market resulting in selling pressure. However, some of that pressure subsided as afternoon trade developed. A price threshold may have been reached for the time being.

BUTTER:

The decline in butter price may be temporary as there seems to be strong buyer interest. The price is not expected to continue to run higher by leaps and bounds but may be supported overall by keeping an uptrend intact. Butter futures continue to show limited extra price premiums in contracts through the end of the year.




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