Monday, December 4, 2023

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Products Report Showed Mixed Output

MILK

Milk futures moved little even with some strength of underlying cash. Traders remain cautiously bearish. Price strength has had limited success in holding or developing a trend higher. There is little reason for prices to increase much ahead of the holiday season as most of the demand has already been satisfied. Further supply is already in position to meet demand. Fill-in orders will continue to come to the market along with regular demand.

Milk production is good and continues to slowly improve as the weather is conducive to cow comfort. Cow numbers are expected to remain rather stable for a period, but it is becoming more difficult to find replacement heifers as beef on dairy interest has grown substantially and will limit heifer numbers. If beef cattle prices drop like they have been over the past 1 1/2 months as time progresses, this may change as it may not be as lucrative as it has been.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $16.40
6 Month: $17.08
9 Month: $17.52
12 Month: $17.80

CHEESE

USDA released its October Dairy Products report today. American cheese production totaled 474 million pounds, down 0.3% below Oct. 20-22. Italian-type cheese production reached 506 million pounds, 1.4% above a year ago. Total cheese output was 1.19 billion pounds, up 0.8% from October 2022. Dry whey totaled 75.6 million pounds, up 0.4% from a year ago. Whey protein concentrate production totaled 40.3 million pounds, up 2.5% from a year ago.

BUTTER

Price has increased five consecutive days as buyers have been more aggressive. It is unlikely the trend higher will continue as churning remains active and inventory is in line with a year ago. Butter output in October totaled 161 million pounds, 0.9% below October 2022. Nonfat dry milk production totaled 127 million pounds, down 1.2% from a year ago. Skim milk powder production totaled 42.5 million pounds, down 34.9% from a year ago. Regular hard ice cream output totaled 57.9 million gallons, down 2.6%. Frozen yogurt output was 4.05 million gallons, up 5.8% above October 2022.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

March corn closed up .75 cent per bushel at $4.8550, January soybeans closed down 18.75 cents at $13.0625 and January soybean meal closed down $4.40 per ton at $408.30. March Chicago wheat closed up 17.75 cents at $6.2050. February live cattle closed down $2.05 at $167.08. January crude oil is down $1.03 per barrel at $73.04. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 41 points at 36,204 while the NASDAQ is down 120 points at 14,185.




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