Wednesday, November 1, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Cash Weakness Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Steady to 1 Higher
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $2 to $3 Lower
Wheat Futures: 3 to 6 Higher

MILK:

There is not much to indicate a change in the trend of milk prices. Underlying cash is not providing much support to futures. The market is kind of in limbo with holiday demand in focus; but supply is sufficient to meet that demand, leaving buyers of product unaggressive and traders bearish. One would like to think the month of November could see an increase in demand, but the current market fundamentals may make that difficult to develop. The milk supply has not tightened sufficiently, and demand has not improved significantly to provide price support. Farmers seem to have settled in for the winter and have made adjustments to maintain cow numbers for the time being.

CHEESE:

The block/barrel price spread is at 3 cents, but that does not mean anything other than blocks have been weaker than barrels recently. The once preferred industry standard of a spread of three to four cents has been seen very little over the past number of years as each category is running under its own fundamentals with little regard to an average spread. For now, cheese prices remain weak with buyers complacent.

BUTTER:

Business is being done at the higher price, indicating buyers do not have sufficient supply on hand to be able to stand back and let price fall. Even though inventory is higher than a year ago, the market shows surprising resilience. However, price is expected to erode as time progresses.




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