Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Tuesday Closing Dairy Market Update - Markets Held in Bearish Grip

MILK

There just seems to be no bottom in Class III futures primarily in the nearby months. December and January Class III futures made new lows again Tuesday with February moving near the low. Time moving closer to the holidays is not providing any support, which is becoming increasingly concerning.

USDA released the September Agricultural Price report which showed the average corn price for the month was $5.21 per bushel, a decrease of $0.52 from August. This compares to $7.09 from September 2022. The premium/supreme hay average price was $288.00 per ton, up $6 per ton from August. This compared to $342 per ton a year ago. The All Milk price in September was $21, up $1.30 per cwt from August, but down from $24.10 in September 2022.

The average soybean meal price will not be released by the FSA until Wednesday morning. Other prices to note include the average soybean price in September at $13.20, down $0.90 per bushel from August and compared to $14.20 a year ago. The alfalfa hay price in September was $224 per ton, down $6 per ton for August and down $56 per ton from September 2022.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $17.04
6 Month: $17.37
9 Month: $17.71
12 Month: $17.97

CHEESE

Blocks were the weaker category Tuesday with sellers wanting to move them and buyers willing to purchase but only at lower prices. Current production is more than adequate for demand, putting the market in a bearish posture. Inventory is higher than a year ago, leaving the market wondering if supply at the end of the year will be larger than last year's. This would point to lower prices moving into next year.

BUTTER

Price was choppy with buyers and sellers doing business when they needed to, moving the market on a day-by-day basis. Interestingly, the price has not fallen as significantly as it did a year ago. This certainly may still happen as November unfolds, but it seems like the market is in a different posture than last year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up .50 cent per bushel at $4.7875. January soybeans closed up 3.25 cents at $13.1050 and December soybean meal closed up $4.50 per ton at $431. December Chicago wheat closed down 9.75 cents at $5.5625. December live cattle closed up $0.30 at $183.55. December crude oil is down $0.95 per barrel at $81.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 124 points at 33,53 with the NASDAQ is up 62 points at 12,851.




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