Tuesday, October 10, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Improved Buying May Provide Support

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: 2 to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 3 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 8 to 10 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Lower
Wheat Futures: 10 to 12 Lower

MILK:

Class III milk futures have been struggling to find support. Underlying cash cheese has struggled to increase due to the current supply being more than sufficient for demand. Demand needs to improve this month, or the prices may see limited upside potential. Milk production is steady and showing some signs of improving as weather has improved cow comfort and good quality, new-crop feed is part of the rations. Cow numbers are stabilized as farms have feed and milk needs to be produced for cash flow. Many cannot afford to cull more cows even with high cull prices. Farms continue to exit the business, but cow numbers remain strong. Demand for dairy products is good, but not good enough to tighten supply.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices may hold near this level unless demand improves further. Buyers have so far seen little need to be aggressive as sellers continue to offer cheese on the spot market. They have no desire to hold onto supply for a price rally that may be limited or may not take place.

BUTTER:

Price has exceeded anyone's wildest guess. It is running substantially above the World Butter Price. Butterfat exports in August fell 58% below the previous year. It is only a matter of time before butter price falls. However, this is currently being offset by strong domestic demand with inventory declining significantly.




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