Thursday, October 5, 2023

Thursday Closing Dairy Market Update - Butter Prices Bounce Higher

MILK

Class III milk markets posted moderate buyer support and firm price gains early in the session with nearby contracts holding strong double-digit gains at midday. By the end of the trading session, November futures were the only remaining 2023 contract month with double-digit gains. The rest of the market still closed higher, but a disappointing finish for the trading session.

October futures closed 9 cents higher at $16.85 per cwt. November futures ended the day 21 cents higher with a $17.28 per cwt price level. The underlying support in dairy product prices, especially butter markets, helped to create interest in nearby contracts. For the most part, nearby milk prices are expected to remain stuck in the current pricing range for the near future. If interest in overall demand for all dairy products starts to unfold through the next several weeks, it could set a longer-term direction for milk prices. Class IV milk futures posted typical light trade Thursday with strong gains seen in October and November contracts, directly related to the price bounce in butter prices.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $17.20
6 Month: $17.66
9 Month: $17.90
12 Month: $18.07

CHEESE

Cheddar cheese prices bounced higher Thursday with moderate trade seen across the complex. Block cheese prices posted a slight 0.5 cent per pound gain but moved price levels to $1.685 per pound. One load of block cheese sold on the exchange, although another bid went unfilled with no offers left on the table.

Barrel cheese prices rallied 1.75 cents per pound, moving to $1.56. This move narrowed the block/barrel price spread to 12.5 cents per pound, which in theory is likely to help spark follow-through price support in the near future. Three loads of barrel cheese sold on the exchange with three bids and one offer at differing price levels remaining on the trading floor at the end of the session. It is uncertain how much more buyer activity will develop in cheese trade in the next few days based on the firmness in other dairy and ag markets.

BUTTER

Cash butter prices bounced higher Thursday morning following the strong dip in production in August from both year ago and previous month levels. Although month-to-month product production shifts are not uncommon, given the fact that the holiday demand season is starting to pick up, tighter supplies are likely to be seen over the next few months.

Cash butter prices moved to $3.485 per pound after an aggressive 5.5 cent rally. No trades developed on the exchange and the entire price shift higher was based on one unfilled bid remaining on the exchange floor.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed up 11.5 cents per bushel at $4.97.5, November soybeans closed up 7.6 cents at $12.8075 and December soybean meal closed up $5.20 per ton at $377.20. December Chicago wheat closed up 18.25 cents at $5.7825. December live cattle closed down $0.65 at $185.37. November crude oil is down $1.91 per barrel at $82.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 9 points at 33,119 with the NASDAQ is down 16 points at 13,219.




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