Friday, October 6, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Further Strength Expected

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 4 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 6 Higher
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 1 to 2 Lower

MILK:

Class III futures continue to remain choppy while Class IV contracts push higher. The continued strength of butter supports Class IV futures, widening the spread between Class III and Class IV. There is quite an unusual dynamic between the two classes and between butter and cheese. Milk production across the country is slowly improving. Milk supply is not overwhelming the market, but it is providing sufficient supply for bottling and manufacturing. Class III futures have had a difficult time finding any solid footing and continue to chop as underlying cash is not trending. Processing facilities report farms continue to exit the business with some of those being larger farms. Yet, cow numbers continue to hold well, lower than last year, but not declining from the previous month.

CHEESE:

Seasonal buying of cheese should increase this month, but it may not have much impact on the market if sellers continue to offer it on the spot market. Manufacturers want to move cheese as quickly as possible rather than pay storage costs. With no concern over supply, prices remain choppy.

BUTTER:

Price continues to reach new highs with little indication of a change in the near term. Price has increased 13 of the past 14 consecutive days. Buyers who did not purchased sufficient supply when prices were lower are now scrambling to secure supply. There is no indication of price resistance.




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