Friday, October 6, 2023

Friday Closing Dairy Market Update - Product Prices Continue Higher

MILK

Class III milk markets closed mixed Friday as early buyer support slowly but consistently faded through the trading session. The underlying support in cash dairy product prices over the past few days seems to have helped solidify the possibility of light to moderate buyer activity still moving to the market.

November Class III milk futures traded 8 cents per cwt higher at the end of the day, closing at $17.36. December contracts closed higher at $17.57 per cwt. Widespread pressure Friday in grain trade seemed to help bring the focus to stabilizing feed costs for dairy rations through the upcoming days and weeks. However, there still seems to be some uncertainty as to just how much support may develop in short-term buying activity for both nearby and deferred milk contracts. Class IV milk futures posted typical light trade with October futures etching out a 3-cent gain and November contracts closing 16 cents lower at $20.84 per cwt.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $17.26
6 Month: $17.66
9 Month: $17.91
12 Month: $18.08

CHEESE

Cheddar cheese prices continued higher price moves Friday with block and barrel prices each posting a firm 1.75 cent per pound gain. Block cheese closed at $1.7025 per pound based on 10 loads selling on the exchange. Barrel cheese ended the week at $1.5775 on five loads sold on the exchange.

Limited bids and offers were left on the complex once all activity was tallied and updated, but the firming undertone in cash dairy prices continued at least through the end of the week. The total weekly volume in the block market posted 24 loads selling with 20 loads of barrels sold on the exchange.

Despite the late-week price gains, the weekly average in block markets fell nearly 4 cents per pound while barrel weekly average prices increased nearly 4 cents. The 8 cent per pound reduction in the block-to-barrel price spread in one week is concerning that further premiums in block prices may not be as secure as once perceived.

Even though strong buyer demand is expected to continue over the next couple of months, there is concern that current production and overall economic concerns could limit upward price shifts in all cheese markets.

BUTTER

Cash butter prices continued to move higher Friday following renewed support sparked by the midweek dairy product production report which posted a 12 per cwt fall in butter production from July to August 2023. Even though trade volume remained quiet on the exchange-traded market, prices moved to $3.5025 per pound, which is another 1.75 cents per pound gain at the end of the week.

Butter prices for the week moved 16.25 cents per pound higher with a weekly average of $3.4355 per pound. This is 20 cents per pound above the previous weekly average. Although there remains underlying support for some further price support in the market given overall expected demand and current production levels, the concern that buyers have generally been quiet in the cash exchange could quickly cool the positive momentum if active buyer interest does not develop in the upcoming trading sessions.

October butter futures closed at $3.29 per pound following a 1.07 cent per pound gain. But other contract months were extremely lightly traded, leaving moderate price softness at the end of the week.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 5.5 cents per bushel at $49.92. November soybeans closed down 14.75 cents at $12.66 and December soybean meal closed down $5.10 per ton at $367.60. December Chicago wheat closed down 10 cents at $5.6725. December live cattle closed up $1.30 at $186.67. November crude oil is up $0.65 per barrel at $82.94. 




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