Tuesday, August 1, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Mixed Futures Until Spot Trading Provides Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: Mixed
Soybean Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: Steady to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: 6 to 8 Lower

MILK:

Nearby Class III futures showed the strength of higher cash cheese prices while traders were not aggressive with purchasing later contracts. Milk prices have a long way to go before moving back to profitable levels. With block cheese price nearing $2.00, traders are exercising caution as current fundamentals may not suggest continued strong gains. Culling has increased significantly, but the prospect of higher milk prices may slow that somewhat. Right now, there is sufficient milk for bottling and manufacturing. Spot milk availability is decreasing as milk production slows. Milk futures activity may be slow until further direction is seen from cash. A record low income over feed price of $3.65 in June should keep culling active as farmers look to generate income.

CHEESE:

Cheese buyers are aggressively purchasing cheese that comes to the spot market. The high volume of loads that had been offered during spring flush seems to have dried up. Supply has tightened somewhat with sellers not as anxious to unload product. Cheese prices are increasing but dry whey is lagging which is keeping the gain in milk futures limited.

BUTTER:

Price is expected to slowly grind higher. Churning remains active but not at the level it has been as cream supply has tightened. Demand is steady and expected to improve as the year progresses. This may reduce inventory to be in line with year-ago levels.




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