Monday, July 31, 2023

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - June Income Over Feed is $3.65

MILK

The average soybean meal price for June was released this morning for the month of June at $413.46 per ton. This is a decrease of $10.12 per ton from May. This was the final price needed for the calculation of the income over feed price for the month. The income over feed was $3.65. This is the lowest income over feed price since the Margin Protection Program/Dairy Margin Protection Program began in 2015. It may be the lowest income over feed price we have ever had or at least for a long time. Previously, the income over feed prices was based on the price of corn, soybeans, alfalfa hay, and the All-milk price used for a 16% feed ration. I do not recall ever seeing an income over feed prices using those calculations this low. Those who chose the $9.50 level under the program will receive a payment of $5.85 per cwt if they have not reached the cap of 5 million pounds of milk. Tomorrow is the last trading day for August futures and options with the July Federal Order prices announced on Wednesday.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $16.53
6 Month: $17.51
9 Month: $17.77
12 Month: $17.89

CHEESE

Block cheese price has reached back to the highest level it has been since March 29. Barrels are back to the highest price level since March 31. The turn from the lows has been swift with prices increasing substantially. Blocks have gained 65 cents while barrels have gained 54.75 cents from the lows. The increase has been as swift as it was in early March, but the gains now have been greater. A tighter milk supply and the potential for further tightening have turned buyers more aggressive.

BUTTER

Price held today as buyers and sellers saw no need to become aggressive either way. The market seems to be well supported and may increase more slowly than cheese has increased. Inventory is higher than a year ago, but not by very much. An increase in demand could draw down stocks rather quickly.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

December corn closed down 17.25 cents per bushel at $5.1300, November soybeans closed down 50.75 cents at $13.3175 and December soybean meal closed down $9.90 per ton at $395.90. September Chicago wheat closed down 38.50 cents at $6.6575. October live cattle closed down $0.08 at $179.53. September crude oil is up $1.29 per barrel at $81.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 100 points at 35,560 with the NASDAQ up 29 points at 14,346.e cattle closed up $0.10 at $179.60. September crude oil is up $0.59 per barrel at $80.68. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 177 points at 35,459 with the NASDAQ up 267 points at 14,317.




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