Friday, August 18, 2023

Friday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Wait for Cash Direction

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Steady to 1 Higher

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 3 Higher
Soybean Futures: 10 to 14 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures: 10 to 12 Higher

MILK:

Even though block cheese and butter prices have been showing more consistent strength, Class III milk futures have been trending lower. If traders do not see consistent support in all the cash categories, they tend to sell the market. If barrels uncover some buying interest today which would increase price, it would trigger buying interest in milk futures. Tightening milk supply has not caused any concern as both bottlers and manufacturers have sufficient supply for current needs. Milk production will continue to slow as summer weather and increased culling impact on the milk supply. USDA will release the July Milk Production report on Monday.

CHEESE:

The wide spread between blocks and barrels is somewhat meaningless as far as what impact it will have on price direction. Years ago, the spread generally remained around 3-4 cents with some brief periods of aberration. That has changed over the years with each category following its own fundamentals. Price direction today is uncertain.

BUTTER:

Slowing butter production and increased interest from buyers are supporting the market. There is no concern over supply tightness, but buyers are purchasing as a hedge again potentially higher prices as the year progresses. Upside potential might be limited but there is no way of telling what that level could be. Current demand is termed as steady. 




Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Overnight Trade Shows Strength

OPENING CALLS: Class III Milk Futures: 10 to 15 Higher Class IV Milk Futures: 2 to 6 Higher...