Wednesday, July 19, 2023

Wednesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Milk Futures Indicate Further Gains

OPENING CALLS:
Class III Milk Futures: 5 to 10 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:
Corn Futures: 15 to 20 Higher
Soybean Futures: 15 to 20 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures: 18 to 23 Higher

MILK:

Class III milk futures have made a substantial rebound over the past two weeks with traders likely to continue to remain aggressive as long as support continues in underlying cash cheese. Milk supply remains plentiful for the time being leaving manufacturers running on full schedules. Supply will slowly decrease as hot weather impacts output and more cows move to slaughter. However, the recent increase of milk futures has provided hope the bottom has been reached and better milk prices may unfold. This could begin to reduce slaughter pace somewhat. Even though milk futures have been increasing over the past two weeks, prices remain low through the rest of the year and into next year.

CHEESE:

Cheese prices have been moving steadily higher as buyers have turned more aggressive. There have been reports of improved retail demand, but that has been limited as consumers are struggling with high food prices in all categories. Manufacturers have been working through heavy milk receipts in areas which have provided sufficient dairy products to meet demand. Cheese prices could settle back a bit as sellers have supply to offer on the market at higher prices.

BUTTER:

Price is supported but may not move higher consistently. Inventory is higher than a year ago, leaving sufficient supply for demand. Churns remain active, but cream supply is decreasing as the summer progresses. Buyers see no shortage of supply keeping gains limited, but seasonal buying will lift price over time. 

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