MILK
One must wonder if the market has turned the corner. This increase of underlying cash cheese prices gives the impression that buyers may be increasingly interested in purchasing supply for demand later in the year. I think it is too early to say that prices will continue to move higher, but they may find a higher level at which buyers and sellers may do business. The reports of milk being dumped continue to circulate, but that may decrease as time moves forward. Class III futures were strong with contracts through November closing higher. Class IV futures seemed to move in sympathy with Class III as butter and nonfat dry milk showed no reason to increase. Fluid milk sales during April were 6.7% below April 2022. That is the largest decline I can remember. Sales of whole milk declined 2.7%; flavored whole milk fell 19.7%; reduced fat milk declined 7.0%; low fat milk declined 9.7%; fat-free skim declined 11.3%; flavored fat-reduced milk declined 11.2%; buttermilk declined 5.0% with other fluid milk product sales down 2.6%. Organic sales of whole milk declined 3.2%; organic flavored whole milk declined 70.9%; organic reduced fat milk sales declined 12.8%; organic low-fat milk declined 17.0%; organic fat-free milk declined 5.7% and organic flavored fat-reduce milk sales fell 21.8%.
AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES
| 3 Month: | $15.16 |
| 6 Month: | $16.26 |
| 9 Month: | $16.75 |
| 12 Month: | $17.00 |
CHEESE
The strength of cheese prices over the past four days has been a welcomed surprise. Whether it will hold the recent gains or slip back will be seen in the coming days. Cheese supply has not tightened, but the perception might be that milk supply may decrease as culling increases and hot weather impacts production. A change in perception might get buyers interested in stepping up more aggressively to purchase ahead for later demand.
BUTTER
The slight decline of butter today does not indicate the price trend higher has come to an end. That may be the case if buyers have filled their needs and can now step back. However, seasonal buying may be taking place and the overall trend could remain higher. Cream supply is tightening a bit, but overall butter production has not been impacted.
OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY
December corn closed up 2.00 cents per bushel at $5.0150, November soybeans closed up 14.75 cents at $13.6025 and December soybean meal closed up $10.20 per ton at $399.10. September Chicago wheat closed up 14.25 cents at $6.6050. August live cattle closed up $1.63 at $178.83. August crude oil is up $1.84 per barrel at $74.83. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 317 points at 34,261 with the NASDAQ is up 75 points at 13,761.
