Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Traders Uncertain of Underlying Cash

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Higher
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Higher
Soybean Futures: 10 to 13 Higher
Soybean Meal Futures: $3 to $5 Higher
Wheat Futures: 6 to 8 Higher

MILK:

Milk futures have seen three days of substantial pressure which could lend itself to a price bounce Tuesday as traders may want to liquidate their sold positions just in case underlying cash prices could find some support. Support will not come from a tightening milk supply as production is slowly improving. It would come from buyers wanting to take advantage of current cash prices and the potential for an increase in culling due to low milk prices. The April Class III contract is mostly set and will not change much over the next two weeks. The May contract is over $1.00 lower, making it very difficult for cash flow if price remains. Class IV has April much lower than Class III with the May Class IV contract only $20 cents lower. However, that is little consolation given the fact that futures are in the $17.00 range.

CHEESE:

More activity Monday with choppy trade may indicate buyers are becoming a bit more aggressive at these lower prices. Cheese supplies are sufficient for demand, leaving buyers with no concern. However, low prices make it attractive to purchase ahead for later demand. Spot prices could go either way today.

BUTTER:

Price is not expected to do much again Tuesday. The market has been entrenched in a range for much of the year and is not expected to change very much in the near term. Supply and demand are balanced with more moving to inventory. 



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