Monday, April 17, 2023

Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - Retail Cheese Prices Significantly Above Last Year

MILK

The bright spot was that milk futures came back from the lows earlier today, but they did close under pressure. Choppy spot cheese trading and the decline of blocks and dry whey left the market with weakness. Buyers are stepping up and purchasing what is coming to the spot market but are not having to aggressively bid for it. Slowly increasing milk production will keep sufficient milk available to the market. The problem may be the ability to process it with a reduced labor force and some plants running at capacity. Milk production is expected to remain above a year ago through the spring flush period. This may keep spot milk at a substantial discount to class. Low milk prices may increase culling and some changes in rations. Lower cost rations may decrease milk production to some extent or reduce milk components affecting cheese yield. Increased culling may be seen due to strong cull cow prices. This is not likely to have a significant impact in the near term, but it could have an impact over time.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $17.98
6 Month: $18.44
9 Month: $18.76
12 Month: $18.77

CHEESE

Cheese price give the impression they are down near the lows with buyers active and spot prices moving up and down today. Sellers have not been holding back but continue to bring cheese to the spot market. There has been a lot of business being done over the past few weeks. The U.S City Average Retail price for natural cheese in March averaged $5.92 per pound. This was an increase of $0.07 cents from February and up $0.45 cents per pound from a year ago. This is interesting as the average price a year ago on the spot market was quite a bit higher than it is now, yet the retail price is substantially higher. The average price for processed cheese was $4.78 per pound, up $0.15 from February and up $0.79 per pound from a year ago.

BUTTER

There is nothing exciting about butter. There has been no price volatility other than limited movement within a range. Cream is available keeping churns activity and the growing needs of ice cream manufacturing satisfied. the U.S. City Average Retail price per a half gallon of ice cream in March was $5.92, up $0.20 from February and up $0.86 from a year ago.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

May corn gained 10.25 cents closing at $6.7650. May soybeans jumped 16.50 cents ending at $15.17 with May soybean meal up $6.00 per ton closing at $465.70. May wheat gained 14 cents closing at $6.9650. April live cattle gained $1.00 closing at $175.75. May crude oil declined $1.69 closing at $80.83 per barrel. The Dow gained 1001 points closing at 33,987 while the Nasdaq gained 34 points closing at 12,158.




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