Tuesday, March 21, 2023

Tuesday Morning Dairy Market Update - Uncertainty Over Spot Prices

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Class IV Milk Futures: Steady to 5 Lower
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 1 to 2 Higher
Soybean Futures: Mixed
Soybean Meal Futures: $1 to $2 Higher
Wheat Futures: Mixed

MILK:

Class III milk futures were under pressure due to the weakness of cheese but saw further pressure after the milk production report was released. Milk production in February was 0.8% above a year ago and was somewhat expected. However, the more bearish aspect of the report was the increase in cow numbers of 12,000 head from January. This should assure sufficient milk supply for the foreseeable future with no concern over supply. There had been some anticipation of increased culling in February due to lower milk prices and high cull-cow prices. Farms will continue to push production to make up for lower milk prices. Spring flush is near and higher cow numbers with many recently freshening may put quite a bit of milk on the market.

CHEESE:

The weakness of cheese prices may result in buyers pulling back to wait for lower prices. Buyers of barrels have been aggressive over the past two weeks, but only one buyer showed up Monday, posting a bid way down at $1.50. Immediate needs might be satisfied with buyers possibly comfortable with current supply and no need to be aggressive until prices decline.

BUTTER:

Price may drift along with supply and demand balanced. Buyers are finding most of their needs through regular channels in the country with limited need to come to the spot market. Bulk butter supplies are growing with the Cold Storage report on Thursday expected to see increased inventory.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

MILK: Traders were uncertain as to how to interpret the moving of spot prices today. Pressure was put on Class III futures after spo...