Monday, March 13, 2023

Monday Morning Dairy Market Update - Block/Barrel Spread May Widen

OPENING CALLS:

Class III Milk Futures: Mixed
Class IV Milk Futures: Mixed
Butter Futures: Mixed

OUTSIDE MARKET OPENING CALLS:

Corn Futures: 2 to 4 Lower
Soybean Futures: 1 to 3 Lower
Soybean Meal Futures: Mixed
Wheat Futures: 4 to 5 Lower

MILK:

Through all of the movement of cheese prices last week, Class III milk futures showed limited overall movement. Traders did not view the large increase of barrels as bullish, nor did they view the large decline of blocks as bearish. The gain of one basically offset the decline of the other. It is difficult to say whether culling has increased due to lower milk prices and strong cull cow prices. Currently, there is little indication of a slowing of milk production. The financial compensation of the Dairy Margin Coverage program due to the decline of income over feed may keep barns full and production strong on many farms. Milk futures are expected to remain choppy and in a sideways pattern this week.

CHEESE:

If buyers of barrel cheese were satisfied last week, they could be a void under the market. Sellers may want to take advantage of the current price, only to find buyers holding back as the needs of last week had been met. The quick narrowing of the block/barrels spread was unprecedented, leaving the industry wondering what will take place this week. There is a strong possibility the spread will widen out.

BUTTER:

Price is not finding solid support and may be moving to retest the low of the end of January at $2.2675. Business is being done in the country, leaving little reason for buyers or sellers to come to the daily spot market. Churning remains active, leaving sufficient supply for demand as well as building inventory. Price movement may be limited.




Monday Closing Dairy Market Update - October Cheese and Butter Inventories Declined

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