Wednesday, January 4, 2023

Wednesday Closing Dairy Market Update - GDT Declines 2.8%

MILK

Milk is readily available for all processing needs. Schools being back in session leaves less available for manufacturing but there remains sufficient to keep plants full. Milk supply is not overwhelming leaving plants able to handle it without difficulty. Traders are concerned over the supply of milk and dairy products during the first quarter or even first the half of the year. Spot milk is available at discounts for those who need to fill in any voids. The Global Dairy Trade auction trade weighted average declined 2.8% yesterday. The average price was $3,365 per metric ton on 33,478 metric tons sold with 138 bidders taking part. Anhydrous milk fat declined 5.1% to $5,395 per metric ton or $2.45 per pound. Butter declined 2.8% to $4,479 per metric ton or $2.03 per pound. Buttermilk powder fell 12.9% to $2,556 per metric ton or $1.16 per pound. Cheddar cheese declined 2.7% to $4,690 per metric ton or $2.13 per pound. Lactose declined 3.6% to $1,178 per metric ton or $0.53 per pound. Skim milk powder declined 4.3% to $2,838 per metric ton or $1.29 per pound. Whole milk powder declined 1.4% to $3,208 per metric ton or $1.46 per pound. It is not usual to see a price decline in all categories. USDA will announce the December Federal Order class prices tomorrow. The trade estimates a Class III price of $20.49 and a Class IV price of $22.21.

AVERAGE CLASS III PRICES

3 Month: $18.41
6 Month: $18.61
9 Month: $18.93
12 Month: $19.14

CHEESE

There is mixed information as far as demand is concerned. Some plants indicated cheese demand is steady while others report it is slowing. Based on the spot market, it would appear it is slowing as prices had declined substantially so far this week. If demand was steady to strong, prices would be supported. Inventory is beginning to increase on a seasonal basis. Buyers are not looking at stepping into the market aggressively as long as there is price weakness.

BUTTER

Overall butter demand has slowed, yet price is holding steady at the current lower level. Plentiful cream supply is keeping churning active providing sufficient product for current demand as well as to rebuild inventory. The industry is slow to develop forward contracts in 2023 for butter as buyers feel there might be further weakness.

OUTSIDE MARKETS SUMMARY

March corn fell 16.75 cents ending at $6.5375. January soybeans declined 9 cents closing at $14.7825 with January soybean meal up $5.70 per ton closing at $482.50. March wheat fell 30 cents closing at $7.4550. February live cattle gained $0.42 ending at $157.27. February crude oil fell $4.09 closing at $72.84 per barrel. The Dow gained 133 points closing at 33,270 while the Nasdaq gained 72 points ending at 10,459.




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